1. First, let's clarify the picture – where exactly do we stand?
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The crypto market has entered a complete storm at the beginning of December 2025.
- Bitcoin has dropped from nearly $126k all-time high in October and is now hovering in the $85–87k range, which means a correction of about 30–33%.
- Ethereum is around $2,800–3,000, having dropped ~22–24% in November alone in one month.
- In just six weeks, over $1 trillion in market cap has evaporated from the entire crypto market.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen about $3.4–3.8 billion net outflow in November, with ~1.7–1.8 billion dollars also flowing out from Ether ETFs – major institutional players have clearly reduced risk.
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index is now in the range of 12–20, multiple platforms are showing it as 'Extreme Fear'.
- Binance Research's November report shows – despite so much correction, Bitcoin's dominance has risen to ~59–59.4%, meaning capital is moving more into BTC as a safe haven. At the same time, Ethereum's institutional demand and interest in staking remain intact, and there has also been significant inflow into a new staking ETF for Solana.
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There is a lot of uncertainty from a macro perspective – Fed's interest rate, US–China trade, and the potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan have also created fear in the market.
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In short, prices are down, sentiment is broken, leverage is melting away – but network and ETF level activity has not completely stopped. You need to think about December, January, and February in this condition.
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2. The mindset for January–February: 'Storm within the cycle', not 'the cycle is over'
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Historically, Bitcoin operates on a four-year cycle, which is generally strongly linked with halving.
In this cycle, a 30–40% correction in the mid–bull phase is nothing new – it has happened repeatedly in previous cycles.
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What is seen now:
- Extreme Fear → forced selling in the market, liquidation, ETF outflow
- But at the same time, BTC dominance, some ETF inflow, and long-term on-chain trends (staking, L2 usage) have supported the large structure.
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In this situation, when planning for January–February, two realities need to be kept together:
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1. There can be a heavy shakeout within the cycle, prices can drop further;
2. At the same time – this kind of shakeout often sows the seeds for the next multi–month rally.
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That is, the mindset should be
'survive + accumulate with plan',
'all-in gamble' or 'selling everything and getting out' – neither.
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3. December: This is not a 'profit hunting month', but a 'positioning month'
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3.1 The special context of December
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On December 1, nearly $150 billion in market cap evaporated in one day, over $640 million in liquidation – many are calling it one of the most dramatic crash days of 2025.
In this backdrop, three tasks in December are the most important:
1. Leverage reset
2. Portfolio clean–up
3. Gradually building core position
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3.2 Start with futures and leverage
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Recent data shows, behind many dumps were highly leveraged positions (up to 100–200x on some platforms).
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If your goal is truly long–term profit in the coming weeks, then the first task should be:
- Check if there is a futures position
- If reduced leverage, or completely stopping to focus only on spot
- Reducing excess risk if stuck in isolated margin
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At this stage, high leverage often means
'liquidation before price'.
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3.3 December – which coins to focus on makes more sense?
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It's better to think at the sector level rather than getting caught up in the 'buy today, pump tomorrow' type mental model.
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1) Core layer
- Bitcoin (BTC) – still the backbone of the entire market; dominance ~59%.
- Ethereum (ETH) – DeFi, NFT, L2, staking – has maintained its place as an infra layer; treasury and ETF interest is still clear.
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2) High-quality L1 / L2
- In several research articles, the coins discussed as the growth bucket for 2025 – outside of BTC/ETH
- Solana (SOL), XRP, Chainlink (LINK), Hedera (HBAR), Sui (SUI), Ethena (ENA) have repeatedly appeared as mid– to long–term themes.
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3) Theme / narrative level – where volume and data are strongest
- AI & Big Data:
Projects like Fetch.ai, Render, The Graph, and SingularityNET are at the top of the AI–data token category; up to late–2025 this sector is one of the top thematic buckets in terms of market cap.
- DeFi + Infrastructure:
Uniswap, Aave, Lido, Maker – these are still leading in terms of TVL and protocol revenue, and events like Uniswap's fee switch + burn proposal have shown direct reactions in price.
- Privacy:
Late 2025 Monero, Zcash type privacy coins have come back into the spotlight; one report directly states – 'privacy coins have taken center stage in late 2025, ZEC has often performed better than the broader market.'
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In December, realistic thinking may be for small investors:
- Without chasing new narratives,
- With your list of 8–10 high conviction projects,
- Gradually taking entry in small parts,
- At the same time, keeping some part in stablecoin as dry powder.
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Here, 'being profitable' doesn't mean short-term guarantee – rather, 'if the market recovers in the next 1–2 years, these coins have a higher chance of participating in that recovery' – in this sense, the probability of being profitable.
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4. January and February: looking at both historical patterns + current risk
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4.1 Seasonality – February is historically a good month, but…
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Bitcoin's seasonality data (from 2010 to recent) shows – February is on average ~13.6% positive month, meaning it's one of the historically strong months.
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January is quite mixed – some years are fantastic, some years are flat or negative.
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But this is past data; the current macro–environment (ETF outflow, Fed, BOJ, risk–off) is very different, so seasonality should never be a blind indicator.
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4.2 Macro and ETF context – what can change in January–February?
- Binance Research and other macro outlooks say – the Fed is stopping quantitative tightening from December; if discussions about a potential rate cut in 2026 increase, sentiment in risk assets could improve.
- If the outflow from spot ETFs gradually decreases, and net inflow begins again, then in the February–March timeframe, pressure on BTC may ease and momentum could return.
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That is, January and February are much of a 'decision period' –
- Depending on ETF flow and macro data
- This will prove to be near the mid–cycle bottom,
- or will there be another deep leg down.
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5. Investment thoughts for January–February: structured plan, not prediction
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Which coins you will invest in will certainly depend on your personal situation, income, risk tolerance, and your previous portfolio. But a logical structure can be established for a general small Binance investor.
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5.1 Allocation framework (assume long-term, medium risk investor)
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A general outline could be like this:
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1) Core (50–60% of total crypto capital)
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Ethereum (ETH)
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Because:
- Dominance, liquidity, ETF access, institutional ownership – these are all cycle drivers.
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2) High–quality L1/L2 + 'blue–chip' alt (20–30%)
Here can be added:
- Solana (SOL) – high TPS, low fee, strong in both NFT and DeFi sectors, along with inflow from Solana staking ETFs.
- BNB – TVL and DeFi activity in the BNB Chain have remained resilient in many cases, and there is a fee-based cashflow thesis in the Binance ecosystem.
- XRP – payments and cross–border narrative; mentioned in multiple articles as a potential 'comeback' list for 2025.
- Chainlink (LINK) – oracle infra, RWA and core data layer of DeFi; many research notes consider it a mid–cycle infra winner.
- Strong L2: Arbitrum (ARB), Optimism (OP) – among the most live ecosystems for Ethereum scaling.
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3) Thematic / higher–risk bucket (10–20%)
Here is ultra–small allocation, but growth potential is high:
- AI & Big Data tokens – like Fetch.ai, Render, The Graph, etc.
- Select DeFi blue–chips – like Uniswap (UNI), Aave (AAVE), Lido (LDO).
- Privacy coins – like Monero (XMR), Zcash (ZEC), where strong relative performance has been seen in late 2025, along with relatively higher regulatory risk.
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Here 'which coins will be profitable' means –
- If the entire market goes up in the next 1–3 years,
- Which buckets may be more logical to hold.
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In the short term (December, January, February) it is not possible for anyone to reliably predict how much any coin will rise or fall.
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5.2 December: How to start?
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December may be a practical approach:
- Clean up futures / high leverage and base only on spot
- At least 30–40% of total new capital should be kept in stablecoin
- Gradually dividing the remaining part into three parts to deploy
> One part → now's extreme fear + DCA at support zone
> One part → If there is another step dump (BTC testing the 75–80k type zone)
> One part → Using the ETF flow and macro in January–February to apply
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You can make December a 'setup month' this way –
- The main focus here will be positioning,
- Not that 'you have to grab huge profit in one go.'
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5.3 January: slow rebuild + observation
Three tasks in January are very important:
1) Continuing weekly / bi-weekly DCA – into the core like BTC and ETH
2) Following ETF flow, Fed commentary, macro data –
- Whether the outflow is stopping,
- whether net inflow is returning,
- Check if the pressure from dollar and yen funding is decreasing.
3) Among the L1/L2, infra, AI coins on your watchlist, which are showing technical relative strength – that is, those which are comparatively less falling or recovering quickly even when the market is red.
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In the state before and after January–February, often 'leadership' can be understood – which sector will pull in the next phase.
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5.4 February: potential acceleration month, but the plan won't change
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If February really goes well according to historical patterns (strong month), then likely
- Some relief rally in BTC
- Then gradually alt rotation
- More flow in strong narratives (AI, infra, L2, RWA, privacy)
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6. How are you thinking – what real risks are there?
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It's important to clarify the natural risks hidden within the way you asked the question.
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1) 'Which coins will be profitable this December / January?'
Thinking like this has three big traps:
- Over-focus on short-term outcomes:
Considering the results of the 2–3 months of December–January–February as everything,
Yet crypto generally operates in a multi–year cycle.
- Narrative chasing:
On the day that sector pumps, jumping in on that day – there is no plan to get out if the next day it dumps.
Late–2025 privacy coins and some meme tokens have sometimes given intra–moves of 200%+, but the thin liquidity behind them has led many to significant losses.
- Over–concentration:
Pouring all capital into one or two small caps or a single narrative; if macro or regulation changes, the entire portfolio hangs.
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2) Over-dependence on Macro and ETFs
ETF outflow / inflow, Fed's guidance – these are definitely important; again, betting 100% on them is dangerous.
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If in the next 2 months:
- Another negative shock comes,
- or if macro data becomes bad,
Then even 'safe seeming' coins can go down another 30–40%.
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3) Psychological risk –
In extreme fear, two extreme behaviors can be seen:
- Selling everything at a discount and getting out
- Or conversely, thinking 'now is a life-changing opportunity' and blindly jumping into leverage + small cap, neither is good for the long-term.
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7. My personal opinion – what is the most sensible approach for small investors in the next 2–3 months?
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Data, cycle history, ETF flow, macro outlook – altogether my personal view of the most rational structure for small Binance investors for the upcoming December–January–February is somewhat like this:
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1) First, 'survival' –
high leverage, random small cap gamble, over–trading – reduce as much as possible.
2) Next step – building the core –
A large portion of total crypto capital should be built slowly into BTC and ETH
(not in a single day, but DCA over several weeks).
3) After that – focusing only on a few high conviction alts –
Established names like Solana, BNB, XRP, LINK,
Selected 2–3 L1/L2 / DeFi / AI projects in your own research –
Those you have truly read about, seen the data, not blindly heard.
4) Lastly – small experimental bucket –
privacy, AI, DePIN, meme – where allocation should not exceed 10–15% of the overall portfolio.
If it goes to zero, still the entire portfolio stays – think of it this way.
5) In terms of time-frame –
Consider December–January–February as an 'entry building window',
And profit targets are primarily kept for the 2026–27 cycle.
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Short-term gains from 2–3 months' moves are a bonus,
But the real thesis is multi–year.
