Some people stay up late drawing trend lines on K-line charts, making them look like treasure maps; others refresh the addresses of large holders more diligently than chasing celebrity gossip, instantly talking about 'catching hundred-fold new assets' and 'guessing market trends for guaranteed profits.'

I feel so out of place: clutching a nearly torn notebook filled with dense 'trading prohibitions.' A friend leaned over to take a look and laughed: 'You've turned trading into an exam syllabus, haven't you?' I actually think: in the crypto market, 'not stepping into pitfalls' is 10 times more important than 'being able to predict' — after all, no matter how great the prediction, one mistake could wipe out all the previous gains, while sticking to the rules at least keeps you at the table.

My 'dumb method' has just 3 rules, without any fuss, but fans who followed it last year all earned at least 15%.

First: Don’t be a 'market fortune teller', be a 'signal light guardian'.

Every day someone messages me asking, 'How much will mainstream assets rise tomorrow? Will new assets break new highs?' I always reply bluntly, 'I can't predict, and I advise you not to try.'

I only focus on 'hard signals'—not just randomly picking a number, but determining key points based on support levels and volume changes over the past three months. For example, when mainstream assets were sideways in the 30,000 range last year, the whole network was arguing about 'a crash' or 'a surge', and some even posted 'accurate prediction charts'. I stayed glued to the screen: the volume hadn't increased, and the support level hadn't broken, so why rush?

It wasn’t until the price dropped below 29,000 (the strong support level I calculated), and it didn’t rebound for 3 consecutive hours, that I adjusted my position according to the rules. Later, some said, 'Your reaction is too slow,' but the result was: those who shouted 'crash' missed out on the rebound by being in cash, while those shouting 'surge' were stuck with their full positions, but I steadily preserved my previous profits.

Remember: predictions can make you look like a 'master' in the group, but executing based on signals is what allows you to actually make money.

Second: Don’t be greedy for 'overnight wealth', instead guard the 'stop-loss and take-profit lines'.

I set two 'strict rules' for myself, and I haven't broken them for 8 years: if profits reach 25%, I must reduce my position (at least by half), and if losses reach 2.5%, I must exit.

Some said, 'You are too conservative, I sold an asset after it rose 40% last time.' But I've seen too many people: wanting a 20% rise after a 10% gain, wanting a 50% rise after a 20% gain, and in the end, turning profits into losses; I’ve also seen people who lost 5% wanting to 'wait for a rebound', but ended up losing 20% and were unwilling to cut losses, leading to position issues.

Last year, I bought an asset that was about to hit the 25% profit line, and the group was shouting 'it can still rise'. I didn't hesitate and first reduced my position by 60%. Later, the asset indeed rose another 5%, but in a few days, it fell back to its original position—although I didn’t make that 5%, I at least preserved the core profit of 25%. In contrast, one of my fans didn’t reduce their position and ended up running away with only an 8% profit, complaining to me, 'I wish I had listened to you.'

In fact, the core of this rule is not about 'earning less', but about 'preventing losses': a 2.5% stop-loss keeps your single loss controllable, and a 25% take-profit allows you to lock in profits in time, accumulating small profits is actually better than 'taking a gamble'.

Third: Don’t chase the 'roller coaster thrill', instead take the 'steady sightseeing elevator'.

The two most harmful words in the crypto market are 'fast'—some people switch between 3 assets a week, always thinking about 'quick in and out for profit', resulting in high transaction fees and not making any money; some see others making 10% in a day and get envious, following along, only to end up losing even more.

I do the opposite: I only seize 1-2 'certain opportunities' each month, and after buying, I just 'lie flat'—as long as it hasn’t reached the stop-loss or take-profit lines, I don’t make unnecessary moves.

Last year, I held onto a mid-tier asset when many people said, 'This asset rises slowly, it’s better to switch to that new one.' I didn’t move and just held on. During that time, it fluctuated, rising as much as 12% and falling as much as 3%, but I didn’t pay attention. Three weeks later, it rose to my profit-taking line, and I safely made a 20% profit when exiting. Meanwhile, those who switched to new assets either got stuck or ran away with only a 5% profit.

My account has never had the surprise of 'a 10% increase in a day', but it has also never experienced the collapse of 'a 20% loss in a day'. The profit curve is like climbing stairs—though slow, every step is stable. In contrast, those who laughed at me for being 'dumb' back then: some ended up with position issues due to over-leveraging and exited the market; some are still 'chasing highs and cutting losses', and at the end of the year, they haven’t made much and are exhausted.

#加密市场反弹 $ETH