📌 Core Signal

1. Bitcoin Short-Term Trend

Current Price: $86,742.18 (↓0.04%)

Market Structure: After a significant pullback yesterday, prices have temporarily halted their decline near a key support level and have entered a narrow sideways consolidation phase, with the market awaiting new directional guidance.

Liquidation Warning: The key support level below is in the $85,000 area, which is the core defense line for short-term bulls; the resistance levels for rebound above are at the psychological levels of $88,000 and $90,000.

Liquidation Overview: As price fluctuations have narrowed, leverage in the derivatives market has been partially cleared yesterday, and today’s liquidation volume has significantly decreased, with market sentiment tending to stabilize.

2. Operation window

Strong wait-and-see sentiment: Price consolidation means that long and short forces are temporarily balanced, the market lacks clear trading signals, and investors generally hold a cautious wait-and-see attitude.

Reference for support zones: The primary short-term support area is $85,000 - $86,000, and the gains or losses at this position will determine whether there is a rebound or continued decline in the short term.

Capital differentiation: AI and computing concepts are popular in the traditional stock market (A-shares), and the heat may spill over to the crypto market's Depin and AI sectors; however, rising expectations for rate hikes in Japan may trigger unwinding of yen arbitrage trades, impacting liquidity in the crypto market.

3. Macro risks

Global policy game: Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve have strengthened (pricing has reached 88%), benefiting risk assets; however, the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations have risen to 80%, which may temporarily suppress BTC priced in dollars, forming a long-short hedge.

Geopolitical risks persist: The deadlock in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and escalating diplomatic friction between China and Japan are driving up safe-haven assets like gold, which may divert some planned inflows into the crypto market.

Industry hot rotation: The A-share computing hardware sector has received capital inflows, indicating the market's long-term optimism towards AI infrastructure, benefiting related crypto sectors (such as RNDR, AKT, etc.).

⚠ Must-watch events

[Tonight] Remarks by Bank of Japan officials and Eurozone inflation data: will directly impact the yen and euro trends, and indirectly transmit to the crypto market through the dollar index.

[Short-term risk] Bank of Japan's December interest rate decision: If a rate hike occurs, it may trigger a tightening of global liquidity, impacting the highly leveraged crypto market.

[Medium-term risk] AI bubble and regulation: The Bank of England has warned about excessively high valuations of AI; if the AI concept fades, associated crypto project tokens may face significant correction risks.

🚀 Minimalist strategy pool

Aggressive traders: Can test long positions near the support area of $85,000 - $86,000 with light positions, betting on a technical rebound. Strictly set a stop-loss below $84,500, with a target back to the $88,000 range.

Conservative traders: Suggest waiting and observing. Currently in a consolidation phase after a decline, direction is unclear, and risk-reward is relatively poor. Can wait for a clear breakout above the $88,000 resistance level or a clear bottom reversal pattern before making decisions.

For those holding cash: The market is currently influenced by a mix of macro long and short factors while waiting for key economic data. Before the direction becomes clear, maintaining patience and holding assets to observe is the best strategy.