Profit and Loss Ratio > Win Rate: Many people have got it wrong
Many people like to ask: "Teacher, what is the win rate of your strategy?"
I am more concerned about: the profit and loss ratio.
There is a simple formula that I suggest you remember:
Expected Return = Win Rate × Average Profit - Loss Rate × Average Loss
Let me give a very simple example (just for illustration, not advice):
The win rate is only 40%, but:
Each loss -1R
Each profit +3R
Expected = 0.4×3 - 0.6×1 = 1.2 - 0.6 = +0.6R (still making money in the long run)
Conversely:
Win rate 70%, but
Take profit +1R, stop loss -2R
Expected = 0.7×1 - 0.3×2 = 0.7 - 0.6 = +0.1R (slight execution issues turn negative)
So when I design a strategy, I will prioritize these few things:
Can I achieve "small losses, large profits" instead of the opposite?
Is the stop loss fixed and executable, rather than "going by feeling"?
When a big market movement comes, can I let profitable positions run as far as possible?
📌 Do not be fooled by gimmicks like "90% win rate" anymore.
In the highly volatile market of cryptocurrency, a healthy profit and loss ratio + stable execution is much more important than an inflated win rate.