Market Intelligence Report | Tuesday, December 3, 2025

🔍 Executive Summary

Bitcoin (BTC) plunged to $86,000 in early December 2025, its sharpest intraday drop in over six weeks, as Japan’s 10-year government bond yield surged past 1.25%—a 15-year high—triggering a global risk-off selloff. The move has tightened liquidity across asset classes, reigniting macro fears and forcing traders to reassess BTC’s resilience in a higher-for-longer yield environment. While long-term bulls cite strong on-chain fundamentals, short-term volatility is intensifying. The critical question: Is this a healthy correction—or the start of a deeper unwind?

📉 What Happened? The Japan Catalyst

- Japan’s 10-year JGB yield jumped to 1.27%, driven by hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and stronger-than-expected inflation data.

- The yield spike broke the psychological 1.25% ceiling, signaling a potential end to Japan’s ultra-loose monetary era.

- Global carry trades began unwinding: investors pulled capital from risk assets (equities, crypto, EM debt) to cover yen-denominated liabilities.

- USD strengthened sharply, and the Nikkei 225 dropped 3.2%, amplifying contagion fears.

> 💡 Why it matters for BTC: Japan has been a quiet but critical source of global liquidity. Any tightening there ripples through leveraged positions worldwide—especially in crypto, where yen-funded trades are common.

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📊 Bitcoin’s Reaction: Technical & On-Chain Pulse

| Metric | Pre-Spike (Nov 30) | Post-Spike (Dec 2) | Signal |

|--------|---------------------|--------------------|--------|

| Price | $94,800 | $86,000 | -9.3% |

| 24h Liquidations | — | $620M (78% longs) | Leverage purge |

| Exchange Netflow | Neutral | +12,500 BTC (inflow) | Short-term caution |

| MVRV Z-Score | +1.8 | +0.9 | Reduced overvaluation |

| Puell Multiple | 2.1 | 1.6 | Miner stress easing |

Key Observations:

- $85K is now the line in the sand—a confluence of the 200-day MA and Q3 2025 accumulation zone.

- Whale wallets (>1K BTC) have not dumped; instead, some added at $87K (per Glassnode).

- Funding rates turned negative across major exchanges, indicating short-term bearish sentiment but reduced leverage.

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🌍 Macro Backdrop: The Liquidity Squeeze

- Global real yields are rising: U.S. 10Y TIPS at 2.1%, JGBs at 1.27%, ECB pushing back on 2026 cuts.

- DXY (Dollar Index) up 1.8% in 48 hours—strong dollar = headwind for BTC.

- Liquidity conditions (per BoFA Global Liquidity Tracker) tightened by 12% MoM—the fastest pace since 2022.

> 📌 Historical Precedent: In 2021 and 2023, similar JGB yield spikes triggered 15–20% BTC corrections—but both were buying opportunities ahead of new ATHs.

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🧠 Market Sentiment: Fear vs. Conviction

- Crypto Fear & Greed Index: Dropped from “Greed” (68) to “Fear” (32) in 36 hours.

- Options Skew: 1-week put/call ratio spiked to 0.85 (from 0.6), showing surge in downside hedges.

- Institutional Tone: Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $210M net outflows yesterday—the largest since August.

Yet, long-term holders (LTHs) remain unmoved: LTH supply at 72.3% of circulating BTC, near all-time highs.

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🔮 Scenarios: What’s Next?

✅ Bull Case: Hold & Rebound ($85K Support Holds)

- Catalysts: Fed pause confirmed (Dec 11), ETF inflows resume, JPY stabilizes.

- Target: Retest $95K → New leg toward $110K by Q1 2026.

- Probability: 60% (based on historical JGB-BTC correlations).

#### ⚠️ Bear Case: Breakdown ($85K Fails)

- Catalysts: BoJ accelerates tapering, U.S. CPI hot print, BTC ETF outflows persist.

- Target: $78K (2025 bull market 0.618 Fib), then $72K.

- Probability: 40%.

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📌 Actionable Takeaways

1. Short-term traders: Watch $85K closely. A daily close below opens $80K. Hedge with puts or stablecoin rotation.

2. Long-term investors: Accumulation zone active. Dollar-cost average below $88K.

3. Watch these indicators:

- Japan’s 10Y yield (sustained >1.3% = red flag)

- BTC exchange reserves (rising = distribution)

- U.S. PCE data (Dec 20) — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

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💬 Final Thought

> “Japan doesn’t move markets often—but when it does, the world listens. This isn’t 2022; BTC is now a macro asset with institutional depth. The $85K test will separate speculators from believers.”

> — Global Crypto Strategy Desk

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Prepared by: Market Insights Team

Date: December 2, 2025 | 14:00 UTC

Data Sources: TradingView, Glassnode, CoinGlass, Bloomberg, BoJ, U.S. Treasury

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only, not financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile—trade responsibly.