$BTC The Federal Reserve bought $26 billion in bonds, now it’s like an appetizer. When will the real easing begin?

The precise definition at this stage is:

"Stop tapering + slight easing," which belongs to "a little easing on the throttle," but it is still far from "flooring the throttle and speeding up."

The real feast (restart of QE) is likely to wait for any of the following conditions to trigger:

Non-farm payrolls significantly below expectations for 2–3 consecutive months (e.g., +50,000, negative employment), unemployment rate rapidly rising to 5.0–5.5%, stock or bond market suddenly plummeting by 15–20%, triggering a liquidity crisis, the deficit exploding after Trump took office, the Treasury issuing too many bonds, forcing the Fed to step in. Before that, this little operation now is:

To serve the market a small glass of aperitif, while subtly hinting: buddy, there’s plenty more wine in the cellar, don’t panic. So you can totally remain calm, eat your popcorn, and wait until the real feast is served before raising your glass.

If easing is about to happen, you tell me the bear market is here? Can the bear market have such a big fluctuation?