1. Weekly Structure: ETH is in the A-B-C correction phase after the top of the 5th wave

1. This round of bull market from 2020 to 2025 has fully completed 5 waves of upward movement
The fifth wave ends at around 4800–5000, followed by a noticeable decline, and this adjustment corresponds to the A wave decline in Elliott Wave Theory.

2. The A wave is basically completed, and it is currently in the rebound phase of the B wave
From the Fibonacci ratio perspective, common rebound levels for the B wave are:

  • 0.382: approximately 3513

  • 0.5: approximately 3788

  • 0.618: approximately 4063 (most typical)

Currently, ETH's weekly price is in the range of 3015–3300, belonging to the preliminary rebound phase of the B wave.

Weekly trend summary:

  • Short-term bias is bullish (wave B rebound dominant)

  • Medium-term still needs to be cautious of wave C decline appearing

3. Potential support area for wave C decline (based on Fibonacci retracement of wave A)

  • 0.382: about 2621

  • 0.618: about 1942 (the most typical correction endpoint)

In other words, if wave B rebound ends, ETH has the opportunity to fall back to the area of 2600–2000.

Two, daily structure: ETH shows divergence around 3000, entering the rebound stage

1. A clear reversal signal appears on the daily chart (RSI divergence + Bollinger Bands lower band rebound)

  • RSI shows significant divergence and gives a buy signal for RSILE (+2)

  • K line quickly rebounds after touching the lower band of Bollinger

  • The 30-day moving average is expected to be broken upwards.

  • This is a relatively typical short-term strengthening signal.

2. The small degree (a)-(b)-(c) adjustment structure has been completed

  • (a) First decline

  • (b) Intermediate rebound

  • (c) The last segment drops to the area of 2700–2800

Currently forming a new ascending structure, consistent with the pattern of ABC adjustment ending → a new round of upward movement starting.

3. Daily short-term target (resistance range)
The range corresponds to the reason 3130–3180 short-term moving average dense, Bollinger middle track pressure 3370–3400 previous low support turns pressure 3510–3600 wave B 0.382 retracement target, key resistance 3800–4060 wave B 0.5–0.618, strong pressure zone

Three, comprehensive deduction: The 3 main paths ETH may take next

Path 1 (probability about 60%): First rise to 3500–4000, then enter wave C plunging to 2000–2600

Logical basis:

  • Weekly structure shows it is in the A-B-C adjustment

  • Wave B usually rebounds to 0.382–0.618

  • After wave B ends, there will typically be a significant decline in wave C

Possible trends:

  1. Continues to rebound from around 3000 to 3500–3600

  2. If it breaks through, it can extend to 3800–4060

  3. After the rebound ends, enter wave C, target:

    • First support: 2600

    • Strong support: 2000 (0.618 retracement)

➡️ Overall structure: first rebound, then a deeper pullback.

Path 2 (probability about 30%): Strong reversal, wave B directly breaks through 4060, re-enters an upward trend

This situation generally requires external positive factors, such as:

  • ETH ETF approved and brings in capital inflow

  • Federal Reserve liquidity easing

  • BTC reaches a new high in the stage

Key signals:

  • Daily line breaks 3600

  • Weekly closing stabilizes at 4060

Once these signals appear, ETH has a chance to challenge the historical high point of 4800–5000.

➡️ Overall structure: Adjustment ends early, directly starting a new round of bull market.

Path 3 (probability about 10%): Rebound fails, directly drops to 2600–2000

Need to see two conditions met simultaneously:

  • Daily rebound clearly encounters resistance around 3200

  • Price falls back below 2800

➡️ Overall structure: Weak, entering wave C without waiting for wave B to complete.


Four, key observation points for the next 2–4 weeks

1. Can the price break through 3350–3500?

  • If it breaks through → rebound confirms continuation

  • If it is blocked → wave B may end early

2. Can the daily line stand above the 30-day and 100-day moving averages (3130, 3370)?

  • If it stabilizes → it is expected to rush towards 3600+

3. If it breaks below 2800
→ Basically confirms wave B failure, directly entering wave C stage

Five, conclusion (concise version)

Short-term (1–3 weeks)

  • Divergence + structural reversal → biased towards rebound

  • Target: 3300 → 3500 → (strong) → 3800

Medium-term (1–4 months)

  • If it encounters resistance around 3500–4060, it is highly likely to enter wave C:

    2600–2000 This area is the key support

  • Long-term (2026)

  • After wave C ends, ETH will enter the next major bull market.
    Has the potential to challenge again4800–5000 .