Core view

Current price: $3,012 (as of December 3, 09:34)

Short-term outlook: bullish bias. Multiple time frames on the technical side show buying momentum, combined with positive Fusaka upgrades and leading short liquidations, expected to test the $3,050-$3,100 resistance area within 24-48 hours, with an upward probability of about 60%. If the 1-hour RSI triggers an overbought pullback, there is a 40% chance of retracing to the $2,950 support.

Key support: $2,900-$2,950 (convergence of the lower Bollinger band and EMA support), further support at $2,850

Key resistance: $3,050-$3,100 (dense area of the upper Bollinger band and short liquidations), break above looks to $3,200-$3,220

Market dynamics

Price performance

ETH recorded a strong rebound in the past 24 hours, rising from $2,797 on December 2 to the current $3,012, an increase of 7.4%-7.6%, successfully standing above the psychological barrier of $3,000. This surge is highly correlated with the anticipation of the Fusaka mainnet upgrade activation.

Major events

The Fusaka upgrade activates on December 3, introducing the PeerDAS (EIP-7594) data availability expansion plan, doubling the default block gas limit to 60 million and integrating secp256r1 precompiled and blob fee market adjustment mechanisms. The upgrade includes 12 EIP proposals, expected to significantly reduce Layer 2 fees and increase throughput, bringing fundamental benefits to ETH.

Technical analysis

Multi-time frame indicators

1-hour level:

  • RSI at 69.99, nearing the overbought zone, with short-term exhaustion risk

  • MACD line (49.54) is above the signal line (42.38), histogram +7.16 shows bullish momentum

  • Price breaks through EMA12 ($2,977) and EMA26 ($2,928), confirming a short-term upward trend

  • Approaching the upper Bollinger band ($3,108), middle band at $2,924

4-hour level:

  • RSI at 59.97, in a neutral to bullish position

  • MACD histogram +21.44 indicates a bullish divergence is forming

  • Price is between the middle band ($2,916) and upper band ($3,126), with sufficient room for upward movement

Daily level:

  • RSI at 44.81, nearing oversold, with rebound potential

  • MACD histogram turns positive (+37.53), showing early bullish reversal signal

  • Price remains below EMA12 ($2,983) and EMA26 ($3,117), maintaining a 7-day downtrend structure

  • Consolidating near the middle band ($2,975), with lower band at $2,741 providing downside protection

Derivatives market

Open interest: Total open interest reaches $3.604 billion, a 3.75% increase in 24 hours, showing enhanced long confidence during price stabilization.

Funding rate: Major exchanges maintain a positive rate (Binance 0.0041%, Bybit 0.0033%, OKX 0.0065%), with longs paying shorts. The next settlement is in 8 hours, indicating a bullish market but with excessive leverage risk.

Liquidation data: Total liquidation in 24 hours is $86.1 million, with short liquidations at $73.1 million accounting for 85%, and long liquidations only $13 million, confirming short squeezes and a shift in bullish sentiment. The liquidation risk chart shows $785 million long liquidation risk below $2,900 (downside cascade risk) and $291 million short liquidation risk above $3,018 (upside trigger potential).

On-chain metrics

In the past 7 days, net outflow from exchanges totaled 187,300 ETH (on November 28), with the overall outflow trend indicating accumulation behavior. Exchange reserves dropped from 17.1 million ETH on November 27 to 16.59 million ETH on December 2 (valued at $46.4 billion), with a contraction in seller liquidity supporting price bottoms.

Community sentiment

Overall polarity

Community sentiment leans bullish, with discussions around technical upgrades and supply dynamics dominating the narrative, while bearish arguments are less frequent and often refuted. Volatility analysis triggered by options expiration is neutral, but the positive narrative prevails.

Core theme

Supply contraction: The stock of ETH on exchanges continues to decline, interpreted as an accumulation signal and reduced selling pressure. Community voices point out that the decrease in circulating supply is a core bullish indicator, with $3,000 seen as a key threshold for continued upward movement.

ETH/BTC trend reversal: Multiple analysts have identified signs of a reversal for ETH/BTC from historical lows, referring to cycles in 2017 and 2021, suggesting a potential strong performance phase for altcoins.

Network upgrade catalyst: The Fusaka upgrade is highlighted as a catalyst for scalability and fee reduction, expected to boost on-chain activity and user adoption. Developers have observed an acceleration in Ethereum's delivery speed, and improvements in the DeFi experience are challenging centralized alternatives.

Privacy and security progress: Vitalik Buterin emphasizes the principles of decentralization and verifiable systems, contrasting with centralized failures like FTX, while donating to privacy projects to enhance metadata protection. Cryptographic computation and zero-knowledge proofs are positioned as key unlocks for Ethereum's competitiveness, with testnets showing high user participation.

Key insights

Trading analysts suggest maintaining key price areas to avoid bearish positions, emphasizing strong support levels. Some KOLs classify the current market's pessimistic sentiment as a counter signal for Ethereum's cycle reversal, prioritizing accumulation of alpha over noise.

Market outlook

Bullish factors:

  • Multi-time frame MACD histogram turns positive, establishing buying momentum

  • Short liquidation dominates ($73.1 million vs $13 million), with significant short squeeze effects

  • Open interest up 3.75% along with price stabilization, showing institutional confidence

  • Fusaka upgrade fundamentals are bullish, with scalability expectations boosting sentiment

  • On-chain supply contraction, exchange reserves down to 16.59 million ETH

Bearish risk:

  • 1-hour RSI approaching overbought (69.99), short-term pullback pressure

  • Daily EMA12/26 still above the price, maintaining a medium-term downtrend structure

  • Positive funding rate shows excessive leverage among longs, indicating reversal risk

  • Clearance cascade risk for longs below $2,900 with $785 million

Price target:

  • Upward target: Break through $3,050-$3,100 to look for $3,200 (4-hour SMA200)

  • Downward risk: Pullback to $2,950 support, if lost, will test $2,850-$2,900

Combining technical indicators, derivatives data, and upgrade catalysts, ETH is inclined to oscillate upwards in the short term (24-48 hours), focusing on confirmation of the $3,050 resistance breakthrough and whether a divergence signal appears in the 1-hour RSI.