The weekend brought the bounce that the market needed. Bitcoin shot up from $59,227 on Thursday to $63,500 on Sunday — a +7.2% gain in 48 hours while short sellers lost $504 million in 24 hours covering their positions. But this morning the momentum shifted again: Israel launched nighttime airstrikes into Iran after Tehran fired ballistic missiles northward. Brent crude climbed to $96 a barrel. Risk assets in Asia pulled back from their overnight highs.
The next big macro catalyst isn't oil. It's the CPI on Wednesday. According to 10xResearch, Bitcoin's weakness since May 12 is primarily explained by ETF sell-offs after hotter-than-expected April inflation data — not by Strategy. The recovery depends on the May CPI coming in soft on Wednesday. If it comes in soft, the rate cut narrative returns. If it comes in hot, the pressure continues.
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💣 BOMBSHELL DATA:
Strategy hit the market on Monday with a $181 million share issuance to buy more $BTC — in the same week they sold 32 Bitcoin for the first time since 2022. Strive also bought 32 BTC last week, exactly the same amount that Strategy sold. And bearish traders lost $504 million covering their shorts when the price bounced from $59K. The bear market has the clock against it.
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📊 PRICE: $63,500 · bouncing from $59,227 · geopolitics halts momentum
🛢️ BRENT: $96 · Israel attacks Iran · April ceasefire broken
📋 CPI WEDNESDAY: the data that decides if the bounce is real or a trap
📈 SHORT SQUEEZE: bears lost $504M in 24h covering positions
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🎯 KEY LEVELS:
🔴 Support: $61,000 (200-week MA) — $59,227 (Thursday's low)
🟡 Resistance: $64,677 (Fibonacci 0.786) — $66,000 (first supply zone)
🟢 Soft CPI Wednesday + Iran calms down: $67,000 → $70,000
⚠️ Hot CPI + Iran escalation: $59,000 → $55,000 — next bearish leg
📌 IN SUMMARY:
1️⃣ Israel attacks Iran and the April ceasefire breaks — Brent at $96 presses all risk assets on Monday
2️⃣ Strategy raises $181M to buy more Bitcoin after selling — the bullish narrative remains intact despite the noise
3️⃣ CPI Wednesday — the data that 10xResearch identifies as the true driver of the bounce or continuation of the drop
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Are you holding $BTC at $63,500 with the CPI on Wednesday looming — or will Iran's counterattack shake you out of the trade? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. DYOR.