Tonight, the US will release a series of key economic data, the results of which are expected to have a direct impact on the market and may provide important guidance for market direction before the end of the year.
21:15 – US November ADP employment numbers, which is the focus for today, with market expectations set at only 42,000. If the data meets or falls below expectations, it will significantly strengthen the Fed's rationale for interest rate cuts, providing immediate benefits to risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
22:45 / 23:00 – US November Services PMI data, including S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, used to assess economic momentum. Data below expectations will further support the 'economic slowdown - policy shift' trading logic.
23:30 – US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending November 28, market expects an increase of 2,774,000 barrels. If the increase is significant, it may suppress oil prices and alleviate inflation concerns, thereby indirectly consolidating expectations for loose monetary policy in the market.
Overall, weak economic data is the main trading logic in the current market. I believe the probability of tonight’s data being overall weak is high, and the market may continue to trade the narrative of 'strengthened rate cut expectations.'
Main Scenario (High Probability): Data is moderately weak, supporting risk assets. BTC is expected to test the resistance area of $89,500-$90,000 again, while ETH needs to focus on whether it can effectively break through and stabilize at $3,020.
Optimistic Scenario: If the data (especially ADP) is significantly worse than expected, it could trigger large-scale short covering, pushing the market to strongly break through key resistance and start a short-term upward trend.
Risk Scenario: If the data unexpectedly comes in strong across the board, it will hit rate cut expectations and may lead to a market pullback, with attention needed on the support strength of BTC in the $87,500-$88,000 range.
Before data release: It is advisable to moderately reduce position leverage to cope with initial volatility.
At the time of data release: Focus on BTC's reaction to the $89,500 level and ETH's reaction to the $3,020 key price level as immediate signals for assessing market strength.
After all data is released: Observe whether the rise is accompanied by healthy trading volume. A price increase without volume should be approached with caution regarding the risk of a pullback.
Tonight belongs to a typical event-driven market, and volatility will intensify. The key to success lies not in predicting all outcomes but in being prepared for different scenarios and strictly executing risk management. In uncertainty, protecting capital is prioritized over chasing profits.
