Everyone, stop the pointless guessing! At 9:15 tonight, the crucial data that determines the market's life or death is about to explode.
The data itself is already clear; what is truly deadly is how it tears apart expectations and rewrites the script. I am Old Chen, no beating around the bush, I will take you through the essence in three steps to deal with the upheaval.
Core interpretation: What is the key to tonight's data?
This data (ADP employment) is expected to increase by 10000 people. The market's low expectation itself indicates that 'betting on a cooling job market and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates faster' has already become a consensus.
So, the core of tonight is not whether the data is good or not, but the gap between the actual published value vs market expectations (10000 people).
If the data ≤ 10,000 (meets or falls short of expectations):
Market reaction: Expectations are validated. The market will believe, 'Look, employment is indeed cooling down, the Federal Reserve has more reason to cut interest rates.' This will give the market a reason for a short-term rise.
Note: Since the 'interest rate cut expectations' have already been partially digested by the market, if the data only barely meets expectations, the strength and sustainability of the rise may be limited.
If the data > 42,000 (far better than expected):
Market reaction: This is the biggest risk. The market will realize that its optimistic expectations (employment cooling) are completely wrong. This will strongly impact the consensus that the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates, potentially leading to a stronger dollar and a widespread decline in risk assets. The cryptocurrency market may experience a rapid decline.
Specific operations: Tonight's three steps
Step 1: Before the data is released (before 21:15)
Reduce leverage, lighten positions. This is not about predicting rises or falls, but responding to the inevitable severe fluctuations.
You can set conditional orders in key positions (such as above 3050 for ETH and below 2980) in advance; do not manually bet on the direction.
Step 2: When the data is released (21:15 - 21:45)
Just watch and do not act. The first 15-30 minutes have the greatest and most chaotic fluctuations, which is the phase specifically for cleaning up high-leverage positions.
Immediately check the real-time trend of the US dollar index (DXY). It usually reacts faster and more directly than the cryptocurrency market: if the dollar falls, it benefits the cryptocurrency market's rise; if the dollar rises, the cryptocurrency market faces pressure.
Step 3: After the direction is clear (after 21:45)
Wait for market sentiment to stabilize and observe the price performance at key positions.
Summary: The essence of tonight's trading is whether the market validates its overly optimistic interest rate cut expectations. A rise from data that meets expectations (≤10,000) may not be as strong as the violent downward shock from data that significantly misses expectations.
For ordinary investors, tonight's primary task is to control risk and avoid being inadvertently hurt in the volatility. A clear trend will emerge within half an hour to an hour after the data shock, and there will be plenty of time to act then.
Pay attention to Old Chen, and explain the logic and response to key events in plain language. After 21:15 tonight, we will watch the market's choices together.#ETH走势分析
