Tonight at 21:15, this ADP non-farm payroll is not just any small data—it is the only guiding light in the absence of non-farm and CPI.
The market's expectation for a rate cut in December is already at its peak, but whether there will be a cut and how much depends entirely on tonight's employment data.
If the data is weak:
👉 The market will feel that "employment has cooled, the Federal Reserve needs to act quickly to save it,"
👉 Rate cut expectations will rise,
👉 The cryptocurrency market and gold are likely to see an initial surge.
If the data is strong:
👉 The market will feel that "employment is so strong, the Federal Reserve is hesitant to cut rates easily,"
👉 Rate cut expectations will cool,
👉 High-value assets may see a pullback.
In simple terms: tonight is a turning point.
The market may not necessarily surge, but volatility is definitely expected.
For those trading, remember to control your position size; for those holding cash, keep an eye on 21:15, and decide the direction based on the strength of the first minute candle.
