Last night, two heavyweight announcements ignited market expectations, but don't view it through a traditional script; the real core is not the interest rate cut itself, but rather—where will the first jump of this round of funds land?
1. The President's comments are not just urging for an interest rate cut; they are seizing the "narrative power"
Many only see the statement: "Even JPMorgan's CEO said it’s time to cut rates!"
But the deeper meaning is: the President's public pressure = the market enters a political trading phase.
The most dangerous aspect of political trading is: the direction is right, but the timing is wrong.
An interest rate cut is favorable, but the more favorable news that comes, the easier it is to become a reason for a short-term sell-off.
Because favorable news realization = depletion of buying interest.
2. CME probability surged to 89%, but this is the biggest trap point
The probability of a rate cut in December at CME has risen to 89.2%, and at first glance, it seems inevitable.
However, there is a detail that few understand:
When the market has already "priced in" something as certain, the real explosive point is not in the result, but in the difference.
If a rate cut happens in December as expected? → Favorable realization, but short-term it may easily rise and then fall back.
If suddenly there is no cut in December? → The entire market instantly returns to zero, with extreme conditions directly slicing through.
3. The key to this round of trading is not the interest rate cut, but rather: where is the money going?
Everyone knows about the interest rate cut, but no one knows which funds will choose whom.
There are three possible directions for capital flow:
① Pushing into BTC: If it follows a risk-averse logic = digital gold rises first, altcoins continue to sleep.
② Pushing into ETH: If it follows a liquidity logic = the Ethereum ecosystem eats the meat first, and DeFi follows suit.
③ Pushing into meme coins, sentiment coins: If it follows an expected premium = funds will choose high elasticity, small market cap for penetrating trading.
The current market situation is very clear:
BTC rises slowly
ETH weakly rebounds
Altcoins have the highest volatility → a typical structure of "not enough certainty, funds first play speculation."
4. How to play this wave of trading?
Stop asking "Will it rise?" The real question is:
Rising early vs. rising late, which risk is greater?
The conclusion is simple: chasing mainstream now = licking blood on a knife's edge.
Positioning in coins with high volatility in advance = capturing the premium.
Waiting for a pullback after favorable news lands = the true entry point.
The market's rhythm is always: expectations rise first → results pull back → realization before the main upward wave.
What you want is the second segment, not the first segment. $BTC
