The Bitcoin rally has reignited enthusiasm in the market after approaching $94,000 in the last 24 hours. However, several analysts warn that this movement may hide a bull trap. The charts shared by various analysts indicate signals that question the strength of the current recovery and point to possible severe corrections.
In a context where Bitcoin is trying to recover key levels, institutional signals and on-chain data do not support the enthusiasm for the price. This analysis dives into the technical reading and market activity to assess how real this momentum is.
Technical analysis of Bitcoin's rise, according to various analysts
The Bitcoin rally is defined as a sustained price impulse, characterized by strength, volume, and breakouts of resistance that validate a trend change. Without these conditions, rebounds are generally classified as bull traps, where the price rises weakly before continuing a major decline.
Javier Crespo believes that the current rise is 'euphoria disguised as bullish confirmation.' His 4-hour chart shows a jump of $86,000 that directly hit the resistance between $92,700-$93,400.
The downward trend from $104,000 remains intact and volume decreases as the price rises, a typical sign of weakness. Your projection points to a rejection at $93,400 and then a drop towards $76,360, supported by Fibonacci retracements and moving averages.
'If I had to risk a prediction with #Bitcoin, I would say that what I am seeing now is euphoria disguised as 'bullish confirmation.' To me, this looks more like a final bull trap than the start of something big,' emphasized Javier Crespo.
SantinoCripto shares this analysis. His daily chart positions Bitcoin rejecting a downward trend originating from the record of $126,000.
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The current zone, around $92,000, coincides with historical rejection levels. According to his view, a 'failed rally' could pave the way for a drop to $70,000 between January and March 2026. Rejection candles and an RSI in overbought territory support this bearish thesis.
'Bitcoin at $92K is already an interesting zone to start SHORT trades. This rally will fail, like all the others until March-April 2026. We will see prices of $70K before new records in BTC. Save this post,' predicts SantinoCripto.
In turn, Michaël van de Poppe adds that the current momentum entirely depends on Bitcoin overcoming the range between $95,000 and $98,000 and finally moving towards $105,000.
If it fails to break this resistance, the market may return to levels close to $89,800 or even $86,822, extending the five-week downward trend.
'Quite a strong movement in $BTC, as it trades above the recent peak and resistance. […] I expect to see a test of $100K and potentially $105K during this month,' highlighted van de Poppe.
Weak institutional demand and declining on-chain activity
Flows to spot ETFs show insufficient support to validate a solid rally. According to Farside, the ETFs recorded only $8.5 million in inflows against $61.6 million in outflows on Monday. This disconnect between price and institutional demand highlights a lack of conviction from large buyers.
On-chain behavior confirms this weakness. Glassnode shows that the participation of large and small investors declined simultaneously.
When this occurs, organic buying pressure is reduced and the price is exposed to sharper retracements. Without an increase in activity, Bitcoin may struggle to sustain any rally towards major resistances.
At the time of this analysis, Bitcoin is trading close to $92,939. Despite recovering important levels, it is still trapped in a downward structure.
To reverse this situation, it needs to turn $95,000 into solid support. Only then would it open the way to $98,000, a zone whose breakout would invalidate the bearish narrative mentioned by analysts.
In summary
The current Bitcoin rally has restored optimism in the market, but the charts and fundamental data suggest caution. Major resistances remain intact and the volume does not confirm a sustainable impulse. Recognized analysts agree that the rise may be a misleading move before a major correction.
Until institutional demand improves and Bitcoin surpasses critical levels with market support, the fragility of the recovery will persist. The December crossover will determine whether this rally will turn into a true trend change or be marked as a historical trap.
The article 'Is the current Bitcoin rally a bull trap? Analysts weigh in' was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
