Currently, BTC belongs to a typical "momentum exhaustion after rebounding to key resistance" structure. This round of rebound has risen all the way from 80600, but encountered significant resistance in the dense trading area around 92500–93500, with the price peaking and then starting to fall back. From the indicators, the 1-hour MACD momentum has shown high-level attenuation, the histogram has shortened and is approaching a death cross, indicating insufficient short-term buying strength.

On-chain and market data are similarly weak. The spot CVD continues to decline, indicating a lack of real spot buying during the rebound; the contract CVD has not synchronized to new highs, indicating that the main force has not actively pushed for a breakthrough. At the same time, open interest (OI) has risen during the rebound process, representing that many chasing bulls have built positions at high levels, making the structure fragile. Once the price falls back, it is easy to trigger a round of passive liquidation or forced clearing of long positions. Depth data shows that there are dense sell orders above and weak support below, making it easier for the market to be pushed back at resistance.

Overall, BTC is currently in a weak range at the end of the rebound. If it cannot effectively break through the 93500–96500 area, it is more likely to fall back to around 88500 or 84000 to seek support in the short term. Only with a strengthening of the spot CVD and a volume breakout above resistance can the rebound possibly continue. Overall, remain cautious, buy on dips, or pursue longs on breakthroughs.