Looking back at the market performance of 2022 at the same level, the market first experienced a long period of decline and volatility, with a cumulative drop of about 50%. It then stabilized and bottomed out, followed by a rebound of approximately 46%. The overall volatility at that time was indeed higher than the current one.
At the same time, related assets also showed a synchronous overselling phenomenon.
Recently, I often review that period of market movement, as the current price structure bears a high similarity to what occurred then.
However, compared to the previous 50% drop, the current round of adjustment is about 36%. If we make a proportional calculation, assuming the market follows a similar structural fractal, the potential rebound target this time may look towards around 108K.
Both market segments were constrained by a long-term downward trend line, and true trend reversals occurred only after effective breakthroughs of that trend line.
Therefore, I have made some adjustments to my trading strategy: I will first patiently wait for the market to oscillate and rebound until the price gradually stabilizes above the 100,000 mark, before considering deploying long-term short strategies or grid layouts.
In 2022, I misjudged due to a false breakout within a range, leading to significant losses after heavily entering the market. This time, the market may not completely replicate history, but it is often the case that after a trend ends, it transitions into a large range of oscillation, which is expected to continue.
