THE SOVEREIGNTY DISCOUNT

THE SOVEREIGNTY DISCOUNT

Ukraine is being marked to market. The bidding has begun.

Two hours ago, the European Central Bank refused to backstop €140 billion in aid. Mandate violation, they said. Treaty compliance. Institutional purity.

Meanwhile, Washington drafted a peace plan treating frozen Russian assets not as reparations for the victim but as seed capital for American profit.

The numbers tell the story no one wants to hear.

The 28-point US proposal: $100 billion of frozen Russian assets flow into a “US-led reconstruction fund.” America takes 50% of profits. The remainder enters a joint US-Russian investment vehicle. The aggressor becomes equity partner. The mediator extracts rent. The victim becomes a revenue center.

Belgium holds €185 billion at Euroclear. It refuses to guarantee one-third of its GDP against Russian lawsuits. It also collects €1.7 billion annually taxing frozen asset profits. The status quo pays. Change threatens bankruptcy.

The ECB says monetary policy cannot become fiscal rescue. Slovakia has opted out of military financing. Hungary holds the veto on sanctions renewal. The December 18 summit is the last window.

Ukraine faces €90 billion in unfunded obligations across 2026 and 2027. The IMF program ended. US bilateral aid is frozen pending “peace.”

This is the sovereignty discount: the rate at which a nation’s independence depreciates when survival depends on allies whose institutions cannot act and whose leaders will not sacrifice.

The €210 billion exists. The legal theories exist. The moral case is beyond dispute.

Yet between Belgian liability fears, ECB mandate purity, Slovak vetoes, and American profit calculus, the architecture of support has become the architecture of abandonment.

Taiwan is watching. The Baltics are watching. Every small democracy near a revisionist power is watching.

The money is there. The will is not.

Welcome to the liquidation.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
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