**While the market celebrates the Federal Reserve's 'liquidity injection', why does it also show signs of fear?**
On December 1st, the Federal Reserve officially marked the end of quantitative tightening (QT). This is akin to opening the liquidity floodgates, which has always been a strong stimulus for risk assets. The macro backdrop has suddenly turned friendly, but the reaction in the Bitcoin market has been somewhat 'divided'.
**Current Situation: Moderate Rise, Concealed Anxiety**
As of the time of writing, the quote for $BTC is approximately $93,019, up nearly 2% for the day, seeming robust. However, deeper data reveals unease: market sentiment indicators remain deeply entrenched in 'fear', with prices consolidating around $93,000, and the RSI at a neutral 59. A short-term lifeline to watch closely is the support level at $92,100.
**Core Contradiction: Macro Warmth vs. On-Chain Chill**
The core driving force is undoubtedly the liquidity expectations brought by the Federal Reserve's pivot, which constitutes the core support for the medium to long term. However, the nuance lies in the fact that some on-chain data shows signs of weakening demand. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded only $58.5 million in net inflows on December 2nd, with capital return being relatively cautious. This contrast between 'macro positives' and 'micro weaknesses' is precisely the root of the current market divergence.
**Trading Strategy: Key Levels Determine Action**
In such a contradictory environment, technical levels are particularly critical.
- **Key Support**: $92,136 (overlap area of previous platform and short-term trend line). If it holds here, there is hope for continued momentum driven by macro positives after consolidation.
- **Recent Resistance**: $93,631. A successful breakthrough could temporarily boost market confidence.
**Risk Warning**
The market is currently in a tug-of-war between expectations and reality. While the macro-level pivot provides support, if on-chain demand and ETF capital flows continue to weaken, the risk of price fluctuations near key support levels will sharply increase. The current 'fear' sentiment precisely confirms this uncertainty.
**Closing Discussion:**
On one side is the 'liquidity feast' brought by the Federal Reserve, and on the other is the market's own 'demand coldness'. Who do you think will ultimately dominate Bitcoin's short-term direction in this game? Will it be the macro uplift, or the pullback pressure from the data that prevails? Share your views. $BNB $GIGGLE
