December opened with a sharp drop of BTC right from the opening price of the month – and quickly created a local bottom just on the first day. For those who have been monitoring the monthly candle behavior long enough, this is actually not an unusual occurrence: many months have also had those "jumps" at the beginning before starting the main trend.

Typically, the first reversal zone of the month (Initial High/Low) will appear around the 3rd–6th. This time it happened earlier, but still within an acceptable probability, as more than 82% of months in history have created pivots later.

The most important thing that this month reminds us once again: If a monthly candle has just opened and has surged strongly in one direction, leaving no wick, then that High/Low level is often weak and likely to be retested or broken through early.

This behavior repeats itself many times — a new month opening too strong or too weak often leads traders to be swept away by emotions, but in reality, it is a sign that the market has not "locked" in a direction and is creating a point to return to test the opening zone of the candle.

So, the next time you see the new monthly candle just opened and running wildly in one direction, don’t rush to FOMO.

Carefully observe the reversal signals in the lower timeframe and prepare for the scenario that the price will return to retest the open area of the month.

Crypto is indeed volatile — but its structure follows rules more than we think. This month is simply another example.