Tracking the closing of positions and the movement of the derivatives market in the coming hours is crucial, especially with the $BTC testing critical supports and the sentiment at "Extreme Fear".
To keep an eye on this scenario efficiently, here are the main indicators and price ranges to watch on the screen:
1. Immediate Liquidation Zones (Price Range)
With the price swinging between $61,000 and $62,300, the high-leverage orders are very close to the breakout points:
Long Trigger: A definitive loss of US$ 60,000 heading towards US$ 59,000 should trigger a cascade effect of forced liquidations of long positions. Last week, similar drops cleared over US$ 1.5 billion in longs, making this range the bulls' defense line.
Short Trigger: If the price reacts suddenly and breaks the resistance at US$ 63,500 to US$ 64,000, we might see a short squeeze (a rush to cover short positions). Recently, a quick rebound above US$ 63,000 liquidated US$ 320 million in shorts in just 15 minutes.
2. Key Indicators on the Intraday
When opening analytical data platforms (like Coinglass or CryptoQuant), pay attention to these three simultaneous movements:
Open Interest (OI): OI recently dropped to the US$ 47.4 billion range.
What to watch: If BTC's price drops and Open Interest (OI) plummets alongside it, it means the market is liquidating positions forcefully. If the price drops while OI rises, new short contracts are being aggressively entered.
Funding Rates: In perpetual contracts, this rate shows the balance of power.
What to watch: Zero or slightly negative funding rates indicate that the bearish sentiment is dominating the derivatives market. If they turn significantly negative, the risk of a technical rebound due to a short squeeze increases.
Near Strike Options Volume: In the options market (focusing on Deribit and CME), the asymmetry is tilted towards put options. Keep an eye on trading volume at the US$ 61,000 and US$ 60,000 strikes for upcoming daily expirations, as they act like price magnets or portfolio protection barriers (herds).
💡 Monitoring Tip: With the CPI report coming out tomorrow morning, expect the derivatives market to experience wild fluctuations and false breakouts (violonadas) in the coming hours as market makers adjust liquidity and traders mitigate institutional risk.
