ETH Latest Complete Main Intent Analysis:
① K-line structure (most critical) 👉 Structural conclusion: this is the main force performing a 'continuation short squeeze', not a top shorting structure.
② Aggressive Big Orders: 👉 This is the core feature of a short squeeze structure (strong push, extremely unbalanced long and short positions).
The main force this time is targeting the liquidation of shorts → 'Short Squeeze Route A' continues to execute.
And you notice:
When repeatedly hitting 3225+, the sell wall did not actively withdraw orders (= the main force did not let the price go down).
👉 Conclusion: Order book confirmation: the main force is unwilling to give shorts a pullback, only wanting to block shorts above.
👉 Spot follows, contract pushes up → The main force is really pushing, not a false breakout.
👉 Real buying pressure from bulls = Strong control structure
👉 It indicates that as long as there is one short-seller liquidation chain, it can break through 3230–3260.
🔥 Main line A: Forced squeeze liquidation route (probability 65% → increased to 75%)
→ The main force has no selling action, all are forced squeeze actions.
Three major routes: 📌 Main line A (probability 75%): Forced squeeze → Liquidation 3230 → 3260 → 3300 area
➤ Confirmation point
Entity K stabilizes above 3230
OBV pulls up to a new high
Contract CVD pulls up again
➤ Divergence point
Continuous 30min three long upper shadow bearish candles
Capital flow negative
A large sell wall suddenly appears on the order book >20k quantity
➤ Switching point (route invalidated)
Break below 3180 (this is the bullish defense position for this forced squeeze)
📌 Sub-line B (probability 20%): Induce more after pullback for another push (washing plate absorbing positions type)
Structure:
Near 3230 false breakout → Downward pullback to 3150–3180 → Pull back for a second forced squeeze
➤ Confirmation point
3230 cannot push up
30min shows a spike and drop long wick
CVD short-term turning down but OBV does not break → Sideways absorption mode
➤ Divergence point
No pullback, continue to go up directly → Return to route A
➤ Switching point
Break below 3150
OBV obviously breaks downwards → The main force starts to collect positions, rather than forcing a squeeze
📌 Dangerous line C (probability 5%): Top absorption → Counterattack against bears
There is only one possibility to trigger:
→ Break below 3100 + OBV/CVD turning down at the same time + No buying wall support below
Currently there is absolutely nothing happening, not much to say.
“The main force has not sold, all in forced squeeze, hanging the shorts up to hit. As long as it does not break below 3180, the main force will continue to push to 3230–3260 for a forced squeeze, or even higher to 3300.”
