2025.12.4 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

The past two weeks have been reminding to accumulate BTC at the bottom, and now it's comfortable for the brothers.

When others are panicking, cutting losses, and BTC has dropped more than 30%, it's a good opportunity to accumulate at the bottom.

When everyone starts asking if they can still buy? That's when it becomes easier to pull back.

The three core driving forces for future growth

(1) Institutional involvement, continuous buying

Pioneer Capital, Bank of America, and other institutions have begun to allocate BTC. If even 0.25% of these institutions' capital flows into Bitcoin, within 2 years, there will be at least over 70 billion US dollars flowing into Bitcoin.

(2) Federal Reserve interest rate cuts

The candidate for the Federal Reserve chairman has been confirmed, likely to be Hasset. Hasset is friendly towards the cryptocurrency circle and likes to inject liquidity. There is a high probability of interest rate cuts in December, and the Federal Reserve may cut rates at least 3 times next year.

(3) The United States is introducing favorable policies for cryptocurrency

The 'Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill' is about to be passed. If passed, the bill will ultimately bring much-needed regulatory clarity to the cryptocurrency industry, which could turn favorable conditions into unfavorable ones.

Current possible negative factors:

(1) The United States and Venezuela getting into conflict

(2) Russia and Europe getting into conflict

Be aware that the financial market carries significant risks, and one must maintain a calm mindset to bear the risks before reinvesting. The country's prohibition against ordinary citizens trading cryptocurrencies is justified, as most end up losing money. The hard-earned money goes into the crypto circle, only to be liquidated by a contract, or invested in a CX project, or playing with a small exchange, or getting hacked, and quickly goes to zero.

Only 5% of people in this market can make money; the difficulty is more than 5 times that of stock trading.

Current suggestion: Start selling BTC in batches at the high points within the range of 97000-102000. Additionally, consider allocating some gold to grasp the larger trend, otherwise, it’s easy to be manipulated and harvested by whales.

The analysis is for reference only; adults must take responsibility for their own decisions. Investing involves risks; please invest with spare money and think independently!