Ethereum just surged to 3200, and the positive sentiment instantly ignited the whole network.
But those who truly understand the market will not impulsively jump in during the first big bullish candle.
Let’s start with the conclusion:
This time, the rise of ETH has logic and fundamental support, but the timing is not suitable for chasing highs.
1. Why the sudden surge? — It’s not a coincidence; it’s a targeted stimulus from news.
The core source of this round of Ethereum's rebound is the recent deployment of
Fusaka upgrade:
Block Gas limit raised to 60 million
Layer2 transaction fees decreased by 40%-60%
On-chain capacity expansion, transaction costs reduction
In summary:
Ethereum has become cheaper, faster, and more accommodating.
This is a long-term positive push towards the ecological layer, a solid good news.
If we say that ETH was 'running while being pressed' in previous months,
then this shot can be seen as changing it from a middle-distance run to a sprint.
Second, but the rise is not smooth sailing — global macro factors are causing blockages.
The statement from the Governor of the Bank of Japan scared the market significantly:
"Nominal interest rates still need to rise."
The result is:
Japan's 10-year government bond yield surged to a new high since 2007.
What does this mean?
There is a risk that global funds may be 'pulled away.'
High-risk markets are under pressure.
The crypto market, the most elastic market, is the easiest to be affected.
This point is key to why blindly chasing highs is not suitable for this round of ETH.
Third, technical structure: momentum is strong, but 'overheating' is obvious.
Looking at the board:
The 4-hour MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero axis → bullish start signal.
But the RSI has surged into the overbought zone 70+ → upward pressure increases.
Major upward pressure: 3370 - 3640.
Key support below: 3100 - 2870.
In other words:
The bullish trend is established, but short-term risks are also significant.
This is a typical 'good news and high position' situation.
Chasing at this point, if the volume cannot keep up, the pullback will be very direct.
Fourth, in terms of capital: there is inflow, but it has not reached a frenzy.
Last week, cryptocurrency inflows totaled 1.1 billion USD.
ETH ETF absorbed another 300 million USD.
The market's expectation for a rate cut in December is close to 90%.
Data is slightly bullish, but note that:
Capital has flowed in, but it is not a 'frenzied bull-type inflow' —
more like institutions positioning in advance, rather than retail investors' emotions running wild at the peak.
Macro instability + cautious capital means the market is more likely to be 'oscillating upward.'
Fifth, short-term trading strategy: what is needed is not impulse, but position.
3220 - 3250 is the range that must be closely monitored now:
If it stabilizes with volume → continue to watch for upward pressure.
If it repeatedly fails to break through → pullback is basically certain.
If it drops back to 3100, the lower rhythm will be reshuffled.
In terms of positions:
Don’t chase highs, don’t go all in, don’t bet at emotional peaks.
Sixth, summary: long-term bullish, short-term needs stability, position determines success or failure.
The story of ETH is far from over: technological upgrades, ecological expansion, ETF support…
Long-term value is beyond doubt.
But short-term market is determined by global liquidity, technical positions, and capital behavior.
This is not a soaring market; it is a 'tentative rise after good news is realized.'
Rationality is more valuable than passion, and position is more important than prediction.
The truly smart approach is to:
Understand the direction, wait for the right position, rather than blindly sprinting in the heat of emotion.
In the crypto space,
Timing is always more valuable than judgment, and control is always more important than impulse.
