As a veteran in crypto who has been watching the market for 8 years and has dodged 3 major tops, I have to say something painful: every bull market ends not with a 'bang' of a crash but with a series of 'seemingly profitable' signals that lead you into a trap. By the time you realize, you have already become the unfortunate one holding the bag.
Want to leave with a smile and not be the last one holding the baton? Be alert if more than two of these 5 'danger signals' appear. This is not superstition; it's a hard rule I summarized from the blood and tears of countless retail investors!
1. Liquidity 'Tap' must be turned off
I can guarantee that every time the Federal Reserve announces 'interest rate hikes' or 'balance sheet reduction', the market is bound to cool down by half within 3 months! This thing is like a 'tap' of global finance; once tightened, the good days for risky assets are over.
Also, with the strengthening of the US dollar index and the cooling of inflation expectations, don’t think this has nothing to do with you. Before last year's pullback, the US dollar index had just broken through 110, and I decisively reduced my position by 70%, ultimately losing 40% less. Remember: macro factors always act before the market; going against policies is just playing with your capital.
2. While mainstream assets are lying low, small coins are collectively 'partying'
This is the classic 'harvesting signal'! When mainstream assets like Bitcoin are stagnant, while a bunch of unknown small coins are being pumped daily, even your second uncle comes to recommend 'internal news of hundred-fold assets,' don’t get excited; this doesn’t mean you’re about to get rich. The big players are clearing their positions and looking for retail investors to take over!
Moreover, exchanges suddenly clustering new products, and platform traffic surging - to put it bluntly, the project parties are taking advantage of everyone’s heated minds to quickly convert 'air assets' into real money. You think it's a golden opportunity, but in reality, they're handing you a scythe.
3. The big players have secretly left early
I check three on-chain data points every day, and one glance is all it takes:
Large amounts of assets flowing into trading platforms. This is a signal that big players are preparing to cash out and vote with their feet.
Long-term holding accounts frequently transferring funds. Even the most steadfast 'die-hard bulls' are starting to sell; do you still dare to buy?
Network congestion and skyrocketing fees. This is not market prosperity; it's the madness of retail investors collectively reaching the top, just like scrambling for tickets during the Spring Festival, seemingly bustling but actually filled with those who will be 'pushed off the train.'
Last year, before a certain asset peaked, I saw the first two data points suddenly surge and decisively liquidated my position. Later, that asset dropped by 70%, and many fans said they were grateful for my reminder.
4. Everyone is a 'stock god'
Opening social platforms, all you see are profit screenshots; experts' target prices are increasingly outrageous, from 100,000 to 1,000,000; even colleagues who usually say 'crypto is a scam' are coming to ask you 'is it still worth entering now?' Brother, it’s time to calm down.
The market is always about 'a few people making money'; when everyone thinks they can make money, it means the crops are ripe and it's just waiting for the scythe to cut them down. I've seen too many people go all in when the public sentiment is the most optimistic, only to end up crying over losses. Remember: lively places never have good scenery.
5. Greed defeats all rationality
The most dangerous signal is that no one talks about risk! When the words 'pullback' become taboo, when everyone around you tells you 'it will only go up and never down', and when you yourself think 'buying less is a loss', congratulations, you are already standing on the edge of the mountain peak.
The essence of investing is 'counterintuitive'; when others are greedy, I am fearful; when others are fearful, I am greedy. When everyone is immersed in the joy of making money, no one thinks about risk, and risk has quietly arrived.
As someone who's been watching the market for 8 years, I've avoided more pitfalls than you've seen in K-lines. Making money in a bull market doesn't count as skill; being able to exit safely is the real skill! Don't want to be a bag holder? Follow me for daily insights into market truths and unraveling of schemes, so that next bull market, you can exit with a smile rather than crying over losses!
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