Data night storm is approaching, and the market holds its breath

Tonight, the market is destined to be unsettled. A series of key U.S. data is about to be released in quick succession, and a data storm is quietly approaching, with all parties in the market eagerly waiting.

20:30, U.S. November Challenger job cuts will be announced

21:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 (expected 220,000) will be revealed

23:00, U.S. November global supply chain pressure index and September factory orders month-on-month rate will also come to light. These data points are like heavy bombs, ready to create waves in the market at any moment.

Currently, the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are almost feverish. The data from the Polymarket prediction platform is astonishing, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut soaring to 94%, as if a cut is a foregone conclusion. Under this strong expectation, the U.S. dollar continues to weaken, risk assets are stirring, and the market atmosphere is tense yet enthusiastic.

However, the direction of the market is not entirely certain. Unless tonight's data presents an extreme surprise, such as a sudden boom in the job market, it is difficult to shake the market's firm belief in a rate cut. But who can be sure that unexpected events won't happen?

In this game full of uncertainties, investors face a difficult choice. Should they continue to chase the trend under strong rate cut expectations, trying to get a piece of the pie, or remain vigilant, guarding against the pullback risk brought by "good news fully priced in"? Will tonight's data become the final spark that ignites the trend, pushing the market to new highs, or will it become the fuse for a reversal in expectations, triggering severe market fluctuations?

As time goes by, the mystery will soon be revealed. Let us wait and see the final direction of this data night. #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH