[Exclusive Interpretation] U price unexpectedly breaks 7! The Federal Reserve's expectation of 'interest rate cuts' + China's regulatory crackdown, is the underlying logic of the crypto world being overturned?
Today, the live stream was flooded with the same question: "Why did the U price suddenly drop?"
My response is: "Are you coming to the crypto world to trade U, or to trade coins? If you laid out ETH yesterday, a 10% increase in a day isn't appealing?"
Overnight, the USDT to RMB exchange rate has rarely fallen below the 7.0 mark! There is a stir both inside and outside the crypto world: "I haven't seen such a low price in so many years!" "Is even the dollar going to be harvested?"
This is by no means a simple exchange rate fluctuation. Behind it are two key variables colliding fiercely, which may completely rewrite the logic of market operation—
1. Is the Federal Reserve about to “turn”? Trump's “rate cut script” is already in place
Multiple sources confirm: If Trump comes to power, he plans to replace Powell, with his confidant Hasic taking charge of the Federal Reserve. The core goal is clear: to push for significant rate cuts at all costs.
Market expectations have reversed in an instant: the probability of a rate cut in December has soared to nearly 90%, and a 50 basis point aggressive rate cut next year has become a high probability event. The weakening of the dollar has become a consensus, and the passive appreciation pressure on the renminbi has increased sharply—breaking 7 in U price may just be the beginning.
2. China targets the stablecoin “gray channel” precisely, with a surge in risk-averse sentiment when avoiding U
Recently, Chinese regulatory authorities have taken strong measures to crack down on illegal cross-border money laundering and currency exchange using stablecoins. This strike directly hits the “gray area” of capital inflow and outflow, forcing many holders to sell USDT for risk aversion, leading to a surge in market supply in the short term, accelerating the downward trend of the exchange rate.
The seemingly contradictory phenomenon: Why does U price drop while mainstream coins surge?
This precisely reveals the deep logic of the current market:
The expectation of dollar depreciation is clear: if the Federal Reserve turns to aggressive easing, global liquidity will flood again. Traditional capital urgently needs to find an outlet, and the crypto market, as a high liquidity asset pool, has greatly increased its attractiveness.
· The market psychology of “crackdown is a good thing”: Some investors believe that while the regulatory cleanup of channels will bring selling pressure in the short term, it will long-term promote industry compliance and attract more legitimate funds to enter the market.
· The emotional cycle has indeed reversed: market expectations have improved, and the previously accumulated bullish momentum is being released. The U price, as the price indicator for fiat currency inflows and outflows, is viewed as a typical signal of the early bull market due to its short-term volatility—historically, before every major bull market, the U price has undergone similar pressure tests.
Old investors vs New investors: A fierce game of “cognitive差”
In the face of volatility, market voices have completely split:
· New investors panic: “Is U going down? Are assets going to be harvested?”
· Old investors remain calm: “It’s always like this before a bull market, the drop in U is actually an opportunity.” More strategists have begun to act: swapping to U at low levels, waiting for the exchange rate to rise above 7.5 to profit, easily earning 10%+ on the difference.
📈 Focus on core targets:
The footsteps of the bull market are drawing closer, are you ready?
