I. Quick Summary of Top Traders' Views
1. Top trader, the "Pigeon" Eugene Ng Ah Sio
(No updates from the pigeon)
2. Top trader Joshua
Updated at 18:40 Beijing time on December 4th:
The video will reveal the answer to whether this market trend confirms a bottom or will lead to another decline after a rebound, in December.
(Joshua's video today explained why the market rebounded sharply on December 2nd, highlighted Japan's interest rate hike this month as a key event to watch, and analyzed the logic and fundamental support for the bull market starting in February next year. The translated text and video will be published on the WeChat official account: Crypto速通车)
3. Trader RunnerXBT
Updated at 8:03 PM Beijing time on December 4th:
Since BTC hit a local low, its open interest has fallen by nearly 20%, while the price has rebounded by 15%.
If this is a typical "high-cycle HTF order flow performance (larping)," then it's basically just like in the textbook (as shown in the image below).
Regarding the key levels for high-cycle technical analysis (HTF TA):
The annual opening price of $93,300 has been a key level for the past few months.
The period from November 2024 to February 2025 was a key support level, and then it became a consolidation zone in April 2025. I consider this to be the lower edge of a high-cycle range.
If this level is effectively broken and held, I think BTC has a chance to reach around $100,000 (the midpoint of the range).
That will be the point where I completely exit my BTC leveraged position – also the largest trade I've made so far in my work.
Let's pray that we can have a Christmas rally.
(RunnerXBT believes BTC will rise above 102K, and he plans to close his long positions around 100K.)
4. Top trader DonAlt
Updated at 16:42 Beijing time on December 4th:
Since selling it, I have been consciously cleaning up all blockchain-related things.
I will no longer hold any large amounts of crypto assets; I will only trade through alternatives to traditional markets, such as IBIT.
Occasionally, I might place small bets on some shitters, but I won't be making any large bets anymore.
(DonAlt liquidated his cryptocurrency assets.)
II. Quick Summary of Paid Bloggers' Viewpoints
1.Vivian
Updated at 7:53 AM Beijing time on December 4th:
Asian Opening Update – Exit long positions. The market has not broken out of its range. Do not short.
We'll wait for a structural breakout in the New York morning session before shorting. The price shouldn't fall to 88-90k; even 88k would be an extreme scenario.
Around 90.5k would be more reasonable. But for now, I'm choosing to wait and see and won't trade tonight.
Good night.
Updated at 21:35 Beijing time on December 4th:
Currently, the bullish structure is still holding up, and neither BTC nor ETH has fallen to a level where shorting is advisable.
They are still providing support and haven't entered a new range. No trading today.
We will short the market if it falls below 92k; otherwise, I think the risk is too high to trade now and it's not worth it.
(Vivian believes that shorting should only begin when BTC falls below 92K; for now, it's best to wait and see.)
2. Wave Theory by Liu Yudong
BTC Daily Chart, December 4, 2025
The 93418 level has been breached. 93418 represents the largest rebound during the decline from 126000 to 80500. Breaking through 93418 indicates that this rebound (blue dot pattern) will continue or has the potential to develop into a leading wedge. Only a leading wedge pattern can form a bottom at the blue dot level.
It requires the blue line to complete five sub-waves, with the third wave needing to be greater than 96438, followed by a pullback below 93161 before breaking out to a third high. There are many conditions to meet. Any misstep will cause the leading wedge to fail. If the leading wedge fails, a rebound is still possible, but a drop below the blue point cannot be ruled out.
BAT (altcoin) rallied very close to the "relatively cheap zone" I specified. It was only 0.0001 points away—yes, four decimal places. I'm sharing the relatively cheap zone and future upside target with my friends. (The relatively cheap zone refers to 0.1996-0.2363, the upside target is 0.6557, and the resistance level is 0.3839.)
(Liu Yudong believes that BTC needs to break through 96438 before it can rise further, and the risk of falling below 80K has not yet been eliminated.)
3. Woods from the WWG team
Updated at 8:03 PM Beijing time on December 1st:
The opening price of the year is currently acting as resistance, falling right near the lower edge of the 3-day OB (blue), and the price is now testing the bottom from there.
We are still positioned above the 4-hour order book below the price action of the past two days; if it breaks below this level, we will see a rebound.
I am satisfied with the current position of the price limit order.
Move the stop loss for SOL to the 130 level, and at the same time create a range for BTC from the top to 88.8k, with the stop loss placed at the 86 level.
(Woods believes BTC will rise again after retracing to around 89K.)
4. Army Commander
Updated at 7:41 AM Beijing time on December 4th:
Open a short position above 93500 with a stop loss at 95000.
Updated at 13:58 Beijing time on December 4th:
Move the stop loss down to the entry price.
(After taking profits on his long positions the day before yesterday, the commander reversed course and went short again, and is currently showing a floating profit.)
5. Wall Street Abao (US Stocks)
Updated from 8:06 PM to 11:11 PM Beijing time on December 4th:
Last night, I added Meta data at the close, and it gapped up at the open. The market makes mistakes, and then it admits them. Yesterday's late-day drop in Meta data was a mistake, and today's high opening is an admission of those mistakes.
According to Bloomberg, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg plans to cut up to 30% of metaverse-related spending, which could impact the company’s future strategy and cost structure.
Meta has taken off due to cost-cutting measures and won't be back to 650 this week; there's no limit to how high it can go.
Abao will continue to analyze the journey from 584 to 750 in meta, from the bottom of the earth to the top of the godhood.
(Abao believes the meta will rise to 750.)
III. Summary
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated that some sovereign wealth funds are buying Bitcoin during the recent price decline. Many sovereign wealth funds were on the sidelines, gradually accumulating Bitcoin as its price fell from its peak of $126,000. Fink indicated that these funds are buying incrementally, adding to their holdings when the price drops to the $80,000 range, aiming to build long-term positions.
Today, Joshua focused on analyzing Vanguard's recent bottom-fishing in the US ($BTC ) in his video. He predicts that with the US ending quantitative tightening this month and the release of the risk of interest rate hikes in Japan, the financial markets will see another bull market in February 2026, and the cryptocurrency market will follow suit. This contradicts the classic "4-year bull-bear cycle" in the cryptocurrency market, which dictates a bear market in 2026. However, if the US engages in further monetary easing, it will disrupt the traditional cyclical theory in the cryptocurrency market.
As we've been saying recently, there's still a risk of a market crash in mid-to-late December, but the market is expected to bottom out and stabilize around January 4th. Everyone should prepare defensively in advance.
BTC is currently consolidating around the resistance level of 93300. There was a false break below that level just now, but it's about to recover. Holding above 9300 would indicate a trend reversal on the 4-hour chart. I've been holding a long position in BTC for half a month, and after two rounds of averaging down, I've just broken even and don't plan to close it yet.
I've translated Joshua's video and posted it on my WeChat official account. You're welcome to read the original article.
statement:
The above information is for reference only and is not trading advice. Cryptocurrency trading is high-risk; please participate with caution.
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