Recently, JPMorgan released a research report that focuses on an indicator that is rarely noticed by general investors:
Does Strategy (MSTR) need to sell Bitcoin?
The report believes that the biggest variable affecting the short-term direction of Bitcoin is not miner sell-offs, nor is it the decline in hash rate, but whether Strategy's asset structure can remain stable.
Why Strategy?
Strategy has already become one of the largest holders of Bitcoin in the world, holding over 650,000 BTC.
As long as one thing remains true:
> "Strategy does not need to sell Bitcoin"
The market will believe that Bitcoin has not lost the faith of major institutions.
The important indicators JPMorgan is watching are:
Can the enterprise value / BTC holding value (EV/BTC) maintain above 1?
Currently, Strategy's ratio is about 1.13, indicating that the company's own value is still higher than the Bitcoin value it holds, thus avoiding the pressure to liquidate assets.
As long as this line does not drop below 1, JPMorgan believes the market can maintain confidence.
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Are miners not the main characters?
Looking back over the past month, the pullback of Bitcoin has led many to believe that the 'miner selling pressure' is the main reason.
✔ Hash rate decline
✔ Mining difficulty decreases
✔ Rising electricity costs
✔ High-cost miners are forced out
These indeed exist, but JPMorgan believes that miners are not the core variable.
The reason is simple:
> The amount sold by miners is far less than the market psychological impact caused by a sell-off from Strategy.
In other words:
Miner selling is 'market volatility'
If Strategy sells, it will lead to 'market panic'
Therefore, the research report focuses on Strategy.
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Helping factors: Strategy's dollar reserves
JPMorgan also mentioned another important piece of information:
Strategy has established a reserve of $1.44 billion, sufficient to support two years of interest or dividend expenses.
This means that even if the profit pressure decreases in the short term, the company does not need to rely on selling BTC to survive.
For the market, this is a clear signal:
> Strategy has sufficient buffer to endure during bear markets, high interest rates, or Bitcoin volatility.
This is also the basis for the report's belief that 'the worst phase for Bitcoin may have already passed.'
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Key date: Whether MSCI excludes Strategy
The report points out that the market is now focusing on another matter—
Will MSCI remove Strategy from the index?
JPMorgan's observation is:
If excluded, the negative impact has been reflected in advance
MSTR's stock price has significantly lagged behind BTC after the news broke.
Even if it is indeed excluded, the additional downside is limited
But if it is not removed, we may see instead
Strategy's 'strong rebound' with BTC.
JPMorgan sees this as a short-term catalyst.
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Production cost = market 'soft bottom'
The report also updated the 'production cost model' for Bitcoin:
> Currently estimated at around $90,000
Historically, production costs have been an important support line for Bitcoin prices, known as the Soft Floor.
When the BTC price consistently falls below cost:
Pressure will force out high-cost miners
Market supply contraction
Cost lines are instead being dragged down
However, as long as the price returns above the cost range, it typically symbolizes:
> The market has passed capitulation.
In the short term, this line is also seen as a limit reference for expected declines.
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JPMorgan's long-term pricing model
Finally, the report provides a much-discussed model:
> Gold price comparison after volatility adjustment
Estimated 6–12 months BTC theoretical price may still approach $170,000
Although this is not a guarantee, nor is it investment advice, it illustrates:
Institutions have not lost confidence in Bitcoin's mid-term performance.
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The key to short-term trends is not miners, but believers
The main point of the entire report is actually just one sentence:
> If Strategy does not sell, the market will not crash.
After significant institutional participation, Bitcoin is no longer a market driven solely by retail sentiment.
The behavior of believers, declarers, and asset allocators has become a more critical reference indicator.
Currently, Strategy's situation shows:
Positions have not loosened
Financial condition is sound
Sufficient reserves
Valuation remains in a safe range
As long as these conditions hold, JPMorgan believes the market does not need to panic excessively.
As for the upcoming short-term catalysts? It depends on whether MSCI keeps Strategy in the index.
Regardless of which side it is, the report has provided clear boundaries:
> The negative impact is limited, but the positive space is larger.
From an institutional perspective, the story of Bitcoin is not over; it is just consolidating.
