1. Morning overview: The market digests gains, showing a technical correction.
After a strong rebound in the previous two days, the cryptocurrency market entered a high-level consolidation phase. Major currencies in Asia experienced a technical correction, but the overall structure remains stable, with market sentiment shifting from exuberance to caution.
Bitcoin: The price received support after briefly dipping below $91,000, reaching a low of below $90,850, and then quickly rebounding to around $92,300, with the daily decline narrowing to about 1.2%, indicating strong buying at lower levels.
Ethereum: The trend was correlated; it briefly fell below $3,100 in the early session but quickly stabilized above the support zone of $3,050-$3,080, preventing panic selling.
Market characteristics: This pullback is a healthy technical correction; bulls are pausing momentum before key resistance, bears are counterattacking but the downside space is limited, and market volatility is decreasing, accumulating energy for future breakthroughs.
2. Technical analysis: Contest for key areas, breakthrough imminent.
Bitcoin is facing a directional choice.
Bitcoin is at a critical technical node, facing a directional choice at the daily level.
Key resistance zone ($93,000-$95,000): $93,000-$94,000 is a historical pivot point for recent battles between bulls and bears; if stabilized, an attack on $100,000 is possible. There is strong resistance near $95,000, which has transformed from historical support.
Key support zone ($88,000-$90,000): The primary support below is the psychological level of $90,000, with stronger support located in the $88,000-$89,000 area. If lost, further tests of $85,000 or even $76,000 may occur.
Technical indicators: The 4-hour RSI is showing initial weakness, and the stochastic RSI suggests a risk of reversal; significant two-way volatility may occur near key price levels.
Ethereum's structure is relatively solid.
Ethereum's short-term technical structure is more solid, but it needs to break through the upper resistance.
Key support level ($3,050-$3,080): This is the current lifeline; holding above it retains the momentum to attack $3,300-$3,400. Short-term detailed support is around the EMA cluster near $2,964-$2,957.
Key resistance level ($3,200-$3,500): The primary resistance is the 100-day and 200-day EMA (approximately $3,013 and $3,206, respectively). If volume breaks through $3,200, the target will point to the supply zone of $3,400-$3,500. After effectively breaking through $3,100, the medium to long term may look forward to $5,000.
Technical and fundamentals: The 4-hour chart shows that it has reclaimed the short-term EMA band, forming a "higher low" structure, with buying power increasing. The "Fusaka" network upgrade activated on December 3 provides potential support from a fundamental perspective.
3. News analysis: Regulatory advances and internal games.
Positive news: The U.S. CFTC Deputy Chairman announced that federally regulated futures exchanges will list spot cryptocurrency products for the first time, marking an important step toward mainstream financial acceptance of crypto assets, representing a long-term structural benefit.
Game and risk:
Whale behavior analysis: Rumors about "Satoshi's era whales waking up to buy" may be a misinterpretation of information; it is advised to pay attention to verifiable data such as ETF fund flows from institutions like Grayscale and BlackRock.
Funding pressure: The market still faces profit-taking pressure in the short term, and the key to continuing the rebound lies in whether it can attract sustained incremental funds.
4. Today's operational suggestions: high sell low buy near key levels.
Bitcoin:
Bulls: If the price retraces to the support zone of $90,500-$91,000 and stabilizes, a light position can be set, targeting $93,000-$93,500.
Bears: If the price rebounds to the strong resistance area of $93,200-$93,800 and stalls, a light short position can be attempted, targeting $91,000-$91,500.
Ethereum:
Bulls: Closely monitor the price performance in the core support zone of $3,050-$3,080; once stabilized, a light position can be taken, targeting $3,180-$3,220.
Bears: If the price fails to break through the resistance of $3,180-$3,200 and weakens, a light short position can be taken, targeting around $3,100.
5. Market outlook: Breakthrough determines short-term direction.
The market is in a "ready to explode" state, and the following points need attention:
Bitcoin's impact on the $93,000-$94,000 area: A breakout with volume opens up upward space; if blocked and falls back, beware of deep corrections.
Can Ethereum stabilize at $3,050 and attack $3,200: This is key to maintaining short-term strength.
Changes in depth of buy/sell orders on major exchanges: Observe the accumulation and disappearance of large orders near key price levels.
Related market sentiment: Beware of the ripple effects that volatility in the U.S. stock market may produce.
6. Summary and reminder: Patiently wait and prepare.
The current narrow fluctuations in the market are a consolidation and gathering of both bulls and bears before the key battle. Bitcoin's swings around $92,000 and Ethereum's gains and losses around $3,100 reflect the market's hesitation.
Technically, whether it's Bitcoin's $95,000 liquidity threshold or Ethereum's 200-day EMA (around $3,206) pressure, strong consensus and funding are needed to break through. On the news side, the CFTC's regulatory advances are a long-term benefit, but the short-term market is more focused on technical games and the practical effects of the "Fusaka" upgrade.
In terms of operations, it is recommended to adopt a "focus on key points, short-term games" strategy:
Reduce trading frequency: Decrease unnecessary operations before clearly breaking through or falling below key price levels.
Adopt a pending order strategy: Pre-set entry and stop-loss orders near key support/resistance levels to avoid emotional trading.
Be prepared for both scenarios: Plan responses for both upward breakouts and downward breaks.
Sometimes the best strategy is to remain still until the market provides a clear direction. Protect your capital, retain strength, and ensure that when the trend finally clarifies, you have enough capital and a clear mind to respond calmly.
