I. Macro driving factors
1. The US Dollar Index is negatively correlated and dominant
· Bitcoin has recently shown a significant negative correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY), with the core logic being the transmission of liquidity expectations and risk appetite:
· If US inflation remains resilient or employment data exceeds expectations, it will strengthen the Fed's hawkish stance, pushing up the dollar and suppressing risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
· Conversely, if economic data is weak or the Fed signals easing, a weaker dollar will provide an upward window for the crypto market.
· Monitoring indicators: US CPI, non-farm data, implied probabilities of federal funds futures.
2. Global risk asset linkage
· Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index still maintain a high positive correlation, especially during interest rate-sensitive periods. The sentiment of technology stocks will influence the crypto market through capital rotation and institutional allocation preferences.
· Need to pay attention to: U.S. Treasury yield curve (especially the 10-year), VIX fear index, changes in the balance sheets of major global central banks.
3. Capital flow verification
· On-chain data shows significant net inflows this week, indicating that long-term capital is entering at key support regions, resonating with the weekly bottom formation. If no black swan events occur, the space for a significant decline is limited.
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II. Multi-cycle technical structure and key price levels
BTC/USDT
· Trend structure:
· Weekly: Potential bottom formation is being constructed, high probability of a positive close this week, mid-term bullish pattern has not been broken.
· Daily: Overall slightly bullish, but facing resistance in the short-term pressure area.
· Short to medium cycle (4H-12H): Adjustments are still needed, conflicting with the imminent end of the short-term adjustment of 1H-2H, indicating that intraday volatility will increase.
· Key game area:
· Resistance zone 93,000-94,000: This area is a previous dense transaction zone and options' maximum pain point, gathering a large number of short positions. If a breakout occurs, it may trigger a Gamma squeeze and a chain reaction of short-covering, pushing acceleration upward.
· Support zone 90,000-92,000: short-term bullish defense line, if broken, the adjustment depth may expand to around 88,000.
· Trading strategy:
· Main direction: Low long positions are mainly favored on the weekly and daily levels, but small cycle divergence correction risks should be avoided.
· Key operations: If there is a 4-hour level stabilization signal (such as a bullish engulfing pattern, RSI bottom divergence) in the support area, can gradually build long positions; if the resistance area is approached and a stagnation structure appears (such as long upper shadow, volume-price divergence), can try short-term high shorts.
ETH/USDT
· Technical synchronization:
· Overall highly correlated with Bitcoin, only very short-term (under 15 minutes) sometimes shows divergence.
· 1H-2H adjustments are basically over, with rebound momentum, but 4H-12H adjustments have not yet completed, need to pay attention to BTC's leading effect.
· Key price levels:
· Pressure: 3,220 (short-term trend line), 3,280 (previous high structure and psychological level).
· Support: 3,050 (dynamic moving average support), 3,000 (important mid-term bullish defense line).
· Strategy suggestions:
· Pay attention to the linkage opportunities after confirming BTC's direction; if BTC breaks key resistance, ETH is expected to catch up and test 3,280.
· If market sentiment weakens, need to guard against possible weakening risks of the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
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III. Comprehensive deductions and risk control points
1. Core contradictions this week: Weekly level rebound demand vs. short to medium cycle technical correction pressure. The market is in a consolidation phase, with fierce long-short battles but no formation of a unidirectional trend.
2. Key catalysts:
· Macro data releases (such as U.S. PPI, retail sales).
· U.S. stock technology giants' earnings reports and guidance.
· Events within the crypto market (such as ETF capital flows, significant on-chain activities).
3. Risk scenarios:
· Upside risks: Rapid weakening of the dollar + strong breakthrough of the Nasdaq, pushing the crypto market to break key resistance, triggering short squeezes.
· Downside risks: Unexpected strengthening of the dollar + U.S. stock market correction, leading the crypto market to break support areas, initiating a deep correction at the daily level (target 88,000-85,000).
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IV. Professional trader action framework
· Position management: In key areas (support/resistance), adopt a staggered layout to avoid a one-time heavy position.
· Hedging considerations: Can pay attention to BTC/DXY, BTC/Nasdaq correlation arbitrage opportunities, or use options to construct volatility strategies.
· Monitoring checklist:
1. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) daily closing price.
2. Nasdaq futures reactions after U.S. stock market opens.
3. Cryptocurrency perpetual contract funding rates and large holder position changes (to avoid short squeeze risks).
4. On-chain whale address movements (Glassnode, CryptoQuant).
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Conclusion: The current market is at the overlap of macro-sensitive periods and technical reversal windows, with short-term volatility increasing but mid-term bottom structures gradually emerging. It is recommended to respond to the short term with a consolidation mindset, and to layout mid-term with a trend mindset, strictly set stop-losses and pay attention to immediate signals transmitted by macro factors. The 93,000-94,000 area is a decisive area for longs and shorts, and whether or not it breaks will determine the directional choice for the next stage.
