大三学妹爱跑步

Bitcoin stands at 93,000 again: rebound or trap?

1. Bitcoin rebounds back to 93,000, with strong selling pressure above, intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears
2. Expectations for Fed rate cuts rise, ETF net inflows, institutional buying supports market sentiment
3. Avoid going all-in during short-term volatility, reasonably control positions, participate in batches to avoid liquidation

As of December 4, 2025, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization is approximately $3.19 trillion, up 2.63% from the previous day. The 24-hour trading volume has slightly increased by 1.43%, indicating a rebound in market activity. Bitcoin (BTC) dominance remains at 58.5%, while Ethereum (ETH) accounts for 12.2%. The overall market has rebounded from the lows at the end of November but still faces macro uncertainties (such as Federal Reserve policy expectations). Market sentiment has shifted from 'extreme fear' in November to a neutral to optimistic outlook, mainly benefiting from the positive news of the ETH network upgrade and the return of ETF funds. The market experienced a significant correction in November (BTC dropped from a high of $126,000 to a low of $82,000, with an overall market capitalization decline of about 35%), but as December began, on December 3, the market surged by 7.4% to $3.24 trillion, followed by a slight correction on the 4th, although most assets still maintained positive returns. Analysts generally believe that December could become a month 'far exceeding November', but volatility will increase, with BTC potentially fluctuating in the range of $83,000 to $95,000.

Last night, Trump announced important information at three o'clock in the morning, mainly mentioning that the potential candidate for the Chair of the Federal Reserve is Kevin Hassett. This choice has already been decided.

He also mentioned that he gets along well with Musk.
Strategy raised $1.4 billion in reserves through stock sales, alleviating the selling pressure on Bitcoin.
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next week is about 89%.
Currently, the market seems favorable and has already moved out of the shadow of the 13 central departments.

Last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs finally turned positive. Although the volume is not large, it shows the possibility of a phased bottom, with Bitcoin's price rebounding from 80000 to 90000.

The SEC's approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF is a powerful driver of this bull market. US stock investors can finally invest in Bitcoin with zero barriers through traditional stock accounts, just like trading stocks, without having to learn about crypto, and without facing the complexities of lost private keys, hacking, or cold wallet operations.

Giants led by BlackRock have quickly absorbed hundreds of billions of dollars by issuing ETFs, accumulating more than 5% of the total Bitcoin supply. This massive institutional capital has not only significantly pushed up Bitcoin's price but also elevated Bitcoin from a fringe asset to "digital gold" recognized by Wall Street.

The emergence of ETFs has opened up a compliant channel for allocating Bitcoin, attracting pension funds and hedge funds. Bitcoin is transitioning into a mature asset in the global capital markets, and the rules of the game have fundamentally changed.

Under the new rules, what retail investors can do is to follow. If the price remains unattractive while ETF funds flow beautifully, it may indicate that we have reached the bottom.

Why does the #Yen interest rate hike lead to declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum?

The last month of 2025 started with a flash crash, as the yen interest rate hike refers to the Bank of Japan raising the benchmark interest rate. Last year, the Bank of Japan also raised interest rates once, and this scenario has occurred multiple times, with the main reasons being:

"Yen carry trading," where Japan has maintained ultra-low interest rates, even negative rates (determined by Japan's economic situation). Investors and institutions borrow yen at low costs in large amounts, then convert it into dollars to invest in U.S. stocks, bonds, tech stocks, and virtual currencies. Wherever there is profit, money flows there, after all, the cost of borrowing is low, and profits can be made in any way.

"Yen carry trading" provides cheap liquidity for global risk assets, and a yen interest rate hike will increase borrowing costs, raising the cost of arbitrage. These funds need to be repaid in yen, so the first assets sold will be cryptocurrencies. Given that cryptocurrencies are riskier and have more inflated valuations compared to U.S. stocks, high-yield bonds, gold, and commodities, institutions will convert the assets sold into dollars to repay yen, leading to a natural crash in virtual currencies like Bitcoin.

Which cryptocurrencies are most affected by the yen interest rate hike? Primarily Bitcoin and Ethereum, because they have good liquidity and can be quickly cashed out; they also have the most arbitrage positions. The worst affected are altcoins, which have poor liquidity, institutions are unwilling to hold them, and when liquidity exits, the leverage squeeze results in the most severe declines.

This bull market has lost the seasonal altcoin rally; the bull market has ended and the beginning of a bear market is evident. Hold onto your USDT, focus on learning rather than trading, and quietly wait for opportunities in the bear market, as many people have been cut during the bull market, while there may be some opportunities in the bear market.

Analysis: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are difficult to counter the weak funding environment and tightening policies in Japan. Matrixport stated that Bitcoin's price is once again hindered at the key resistance level of $92,000, with upward momentum slowing. Although the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may initiate interest rate cuts next week, related ETFs have only seen slight net inflows, and the overall funding environment remains weak, making it difficult to support the judgment of a significant return of institutional funds. At the same time, signals of tightening in Japan's monetary policy have intensified market anxiety, with the 2-year Japanese government bond yield breaking above 1% for the first time since 2008. Investors are beginning to reassess the consistency of major global central banks in their easing pace. Against this backdrop, even if the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals, it is challenging to offset the tightening expectations from other economies, and the overall policy direction remains tight, providing a rationale for institutional investors to reduce their exposure to Bitcoin.

Christmas market remains uncertain, Bitcoin tests support at $83,200, Ethereum closely watches the $2,600 level. The macroeconomic environment is complex, and risk assets are under pressure. Global monetary policies are diverging, with the market generally expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, while the Bank of Japan has issued clear signals for rate hikes, creating a policy contrast. Chinese regulatory authorities have reiterated a strict crackdown on virtual currencies and have included stablecoins in the risk regulatory scope. The traditional 'Christmas market' may be lacking: influenced by the disruptive impact of AI and ongoing market volatility, Wall Street strategists believe the seasonal increase in U.S. stocks may be broken this year. The cryptocurrency market is experiencing heightened panic, with Bitcoin recording its worst monthly performance in six years; Bitcoin's performance is weak: the closing price in November was $90,360, with a monthly decline of 17.55%, marking the worst November performance since 2018. The start of December continues to decline, once falling below $86,000, triggering large-scale leveraged liquidations. Analyst opinions are divided: some analysts are bearish, predicting prices could drop to the $40,000-$70,000 range; others believe the current decline is a healthy liquidity cleanup, with key short-term support at $83,200-$84,000. Ethereum is oscillating in a key range: prices fluctuate between $2,600 and $3,000. If it falls below the $2,600 support, it may further drop to the low of $2,000. The market also faces selling pressure from the large unlocking of staked ETH. Yearn Finance suffered an attack with losses of about $9 million; the SAHARA token halved in price due to market maker issues; Binance has listed several tokens under monitoring labels, causing their prices to plummet. Today's focus: several tokens (such as SUI, SANTOS, ENA) will experience significant unlocking, which may exert selling pressure on the market. Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, Zcash, Ethena, and others saw significant intraday declines.

It depends on macro factors. The Federal Reserve's return to balance sheet expansion after 26 years is likely, and if liquidity is abundant, it is also possible for Bitcoin to challenge 150,000 again. However, this does not mean I will buy in now, as I need to see concrete actions of liquidity easing, even if I might miss out on the potential for lower prices. To elaborate on why expansion is likely: 1. Sino-U.S. relations are tending to ease, and everyone is increasingly aware that actual conflict between the two countries is difficult; 2. The high interest rate environment in the U.S. is unsustainable. With the development of AI, the unemployment issue is becoming more severe, and the labor market can no longer bear higher interest rates; the financial market also cannot sustain high interest rates, and by 2026, a large amount of Private Credit will face concentrated renewal pressure.

It depends on the macro situation. The Federal Reserve's return to balance sheet expansion after 26 years is likely, and if liquidity is abundant, it's also possible for Bitcoin to hit 150,000 again. However, this does not mean I will buy in now, as I need to see concrete actions of liquidity easing, even if it means I might miss out on potentially lower prices.

Let me elaborate on why expansion is highly likely:
1. The relationship between China and the U.S. is becoming more relaxed, and everyone is increasingly realizing that it is difficult for the two countries to have actual conflicts;
2. The high interest rate environment in the U.S. is unsustainable. With the development of AI, unemployment issues are becoming more serious, and the labor market can no longer bear higher interest rates; the financial market also cannot sustain high rates. By 2026, a large amount of Private Credit will face concentrated renewal pressure.

They don't care about the issue much

BlackRock sold 2,150 BTC before Powell's speech

According to market monitoring data, BlackRock suddenly sold approximately 2,150 Bitcoins today before Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, with a total value exceeding 185 million USD.

The large sell-off has drawn market attention. Institutions typically adjust their positions before significant policy signals are released, and the market generally speculates that there may be potential bearish news to be disclosed. Currently, short-term sentiment for Bitcoin is becoming cautious.

BTC Sudden Correction! Falling Below $90k, What Happened?

Today, Bitcoin temporarily dropped 3% to around $88,000, causing market sentiment to tense up instantly. This sharp decline is the result of a combination of multiple negative factors:

Macro Shift: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations suddenly cooled, and concerns about liquidity tightening have resurfaced. Weekend Bloodbath: The option expiration date, combined with the low liquidity over the weekend, triggered a chain of liquidations and forced sales. Whale Retreat: Large holders and ETF funds that had previously made profits opted to cash out, leading to increased selling pressure.

Here's the key: Don't panic! This is just a necessary "detox" and healthy correction in a wildly bullish market. Clear up the leverage, and the vehicle will be lighter. Hold on to your chips, the bull market is still on!

Anyone can join a Bitcoin node with a computer and audit the entire Bitcoin ledger.
This is something no other currency system can do:
The ledger of the US dollar is at the Federal Reserve, requiring trust in the Federal Reserve.
The ledger of banks is at the banks, requiring trust in the banks.
Gold has no ledger, requiring trust in third-party vaults and statistics.
For any asset in traditional finance, you have to trust institutions or regulators.
Only Bitcoin: anyone can verify, and you do not need to trust anyone.

Sister, I sit at the bow of the boat, on the same boat as USDT.
Tether believes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will reduce its earnings from interest, so it is heavily buying gold and Bitcoin as a hedge. It wants to transform itself into a "gold + Bitcoin" hoarding company, making it known to the market: no matter whether you are optimistic about gold or Bitcoin, Tether is on the same boat as you.

Hotspot Review - November 28

▰ The nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman has entered its final stage, with the probability of betting on Kevin Hassett on the prediction market Polymarket at 56%. He holds millions of dollars in Coinbase stock and has served as an advisor to Coinbase, being cryptocurrency-friendly; the market generally expects that his appointment will promote a more aggressive interest rate cut policy.

▰ The Kraken Launch platform launched in collaboration with Legion typically opens new projects simultaneously on Legion and Kraken Launch, ultimately funneling through Kraken Spot. The first Kraken Launch project was YB, a project by the founder of Curve, which later also appeared on Binance Wallet Pre-TGE. Today, the second Kraken Launch project was announced: the Base ecological sports prediction project @footballdotfun, with no specific details provided yet, possibly similar to the last time, it may also go on Binance Pre-TGE.

▰ MegaETH deposits will all be refunded, as the co-founder reflects on issues such as insufficient preparation for the event plan and chaotic execution. Another deposit event will be conducted before the mainnet goes live.

▰ On November 17, Yala's stablecoin YU depegged; as of the time of writing, YU's price has not yet returned to the peg, quoted at $0.38. Today it announced a shift towards AI-driven intelligent prediction… This only indicates that the prediction market is indeed hot, and everyone wants to jump in.

▰ Major cryptocurrency exchanges are donating to support the fire rescue efforts in Tai Po, Hong Kong.

In closing, I wish everyone great wealth!

U.S. stocks ended higher! The Dow Jones surged by 664 points, Nvidia closed down by 2.5% https://fu-tuo.com/zh-CN/campaign-2/?utm_source=fx007.com&utm_content=fx007_app_propagebanner_686x132&utm_campaign=gold-price-cut&utm_medium=mediabuy
Google once again stirs up the AI whirlwind! Major U.S. tech stocks rebound strongly
Dell raises its financial forecast again, Amazon expands investment in AI
Weak job market increases interest rate cut probability;
Divisions within the Federal Reserve, Powell's allies support rate cuts, paving the way for the third consecutive rate cut ;

In terms of interest rate cuts, the most crucial point is that the Federal Reserve's internal attitude is no longer to 'fight inflation at all costs.' The CME interest rate futures returning to 71% is not surprising, as recent core CPI and PCE are on the decline. Bessenet has also clearly stated that some states are showing signs of recession, which gives the Federal Reserve a reason to take action.

Young people, you must invest in cryptocurrency. The crypto space is the largest "knowledge payment platform"; as long as you dare to think and stay up late, you can learn things that others won't touch in their lifetime. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and hikes, CPI, PPI, non-farm unemployment rate, US dollar index, capital flow, options expiration settlement volume... which one haven't I studied? On-chain data, trading depth, funding rates, whale addresses, gas fees, BTC halving models, ETH burn rates... which one am I not monitoring? Cycle theory, Kondratiev waves, Juglar cycles, bull-bear alternation, crypto four-year halving... which cycle haven't I calculated? Technical indicators, waves, Fibonacci, KDJ, MACD, Bollinger Bands, support and resistance, double bottoms and tops, false breaks, chip distribution... which technical analysis haven't I touched? Emotional cycles, FOMO, FUD, hitting the board, all-in, buying low and selling high... which strategy haven't I tried? Global policies, SEC hearings, ETF approvals, CBDC pilots, Asian trading sessions... which regulation haven't I closely followed? Various tracks, BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, OP, L2, DePIN, AI coins, GameFi, meme coins... which one don't I understand? Mining machines, electricity costs, computing power, chips, mining field profits... which industrial chain haven't I studied? Public chains, side chains, DEX, CEX, bridges, stablecoins, lending, clearing mechanisms... which protocol am I not familiar with? AI, RWA, Restaking, bot trading, quantitative arbitrage, market making... which strategy haven't I touched? I read white papers, listen to KOLs, browse Twitter spaces, mingle in Discord, check on-chain addresses, copy contract codes... which information don't I understand? Musk tweets, Grayscale's sell-off, BlackRock's increase in holdings, new listings on exchanges, whale sell-offs... which one am I not watching every second? Millionaire big shots tweet and I click, billion-dollar funds bottom fish and I follow; even if I lose badly, I have to study the rhythm of institutions accumulating positions. The pain of losing money, the thrill of liquidation, the heartbeat of chasing highs, the illusion of taking profits—all of this helps you understand the essence of human nature and finance. Ten thousand dollars is enough to make you lose at a PhD level. In the crypto space, nothing like yellow, gambling, or drugs can attract you; with daily fluctuations of over a thousand dollars, your nerves are always online. So, young people, I sincerely say—definitely invest in cryptocurrency! There is no greater opportunity in life than this; quietly work at it and you'll get rich soon!

【U.S. Labor Department Delays November Employment Data Release, Fed Enters One-Month 'Blackout' Again】 The U.S. Labor Department announced that it will release the 'November Employment Situation' data on December 16. This date happens to be 6 days after the December Federal Reserve meeting. The Federal Reserve effectively enters another one-month 'blackout' period for labor market data.