Brothers, there is a real time bomb tonight that can sway the entire market:
Beijing time 23:00
The U.S. will release the core PCE for September (inflation indicator)
Expectation: 2.9% (previous value 2.9%)
Don't be fooled by the unchanged numbers,
Core PCE is the most important inflation reference for the Federal Reserve,
It will determine whether and when to cut interest rates, and whether to dare to cut rates.
And the key lies in:
The market is now stuck in the liquidation kill zone of BTC 94,000 short vs. 91,000 long.
That is to say:
👉 As long as there is a 0.1% deviation tonight,
The entire market will explode in an instant.
1. Why is the core PCE so critical?
Because core PCE is the most sensitive inflation indicator in the United States:
Food has been excluded
Energy has been excluded
It can directly reflect the 'real cost growth of consumption'
It is the core basis for the Federal Reserve's 'setting interest rates, adjusting rates, and cutting rates'
In one sentence:
PCE is the lifeline of the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Reserve is the lifeline of global assets.
And tonight's PCE has two possibilities:
① Below 2.9% → Interest rate cut expectations soar → Assets are fully Risk-On
BTC, ETH, and SOL will be ignited instantly.
Especially in the case of a 1 billion level short liquidation cluster above 94k,
Once a short squeeze happens, it will directly lead to a waterfall-like rise.
② Above 2.9% → Interest rate cut expectations are delayed → Risk assets contract overall
BTC may quickly drop to 91k,
Directly ignites the cluster of 641 million long liquidations.
That is to say:
Tonight is not about the market; it's about life and death.
Two, why is the current market particularly afraid of this number?
Because the market is in a historically rare 'directional compression phase':
BTC is stuck at the 93k range
The intensity of short positions above is extremely high
The pressure for a long position explosion is extremely strong
Institutions dare not move
The main players are waiting for the event
Liquidation energy accumulates
Sentiment is weak
Liquidity is tight
And this structure fears the most is a 'macro surprise.'
So you will see:
23:00 → The probability of a thousand-point fluctuation is extremely high
Not just BTC,
ETH, SOL, Memes, and altcoins will all sway together.
Three, why are the main players waiting for tonight instead of pulling ahead?
Because what the main players want is not direction,
But rather—
Creating the maximum amplitude of liquidation waterfalls using events.
The logic of the main players is very clear:
If PCE is low → A strong short squeeze is more pleasant
If PCE is on the high side → A strong sell-off is more likely
If PCE is flat → Using 'interpretation differences' can also squeeze a wave
The core of event-driven markets is not the data itself,
But rather:
'Data + liquidation clusters + sentiment + liquidity' four factors overlapping.
And tonight all four are in place.
Four, the three key scenarios of the market (you need to know in advance)
📌 Scenario one: PCE below 2.9% (strongly bullish)
→ Interest rate cut expectations are advanced
→ US Treasury yields decline
→ US stock futures strengthen
→ BTC surges to 94k
→ 1 billion level short positions burst in sequence
→ The market accelerates instantly to the 96k - 98k range
This is a 'short squeeze waterfall-like rise.'
📌 Scenario two: PCE above 2.9% (strongly bearish)
→ Interest rate cut expectations are postponed
→ US Treasury yields rebound
→ BTC drops to 91k
→ 641 million level long positions burst in sequence
→ A large bearish candle hits the main support
This is a 'strong bullish cliff drop.'
📌 Scenario three: PCE flat at 2.9% (directional choice after fluctuations)
→ The market quickly interprets: hawkish or dovish
→ The main players misread the sentiment and forcefully squeeze one side
This is the most dangerous version of 'false breakouts with true directions.'
Five, I believe:
Tonight at 23:00 is the most important time window in December.
The reasons are very clear:
Liquidation clusters overlapping with macro events → The market must have direction.
It's not a possibility; it's a certainty.
The structure of BTC has been pressed to the limit → There is no space to move sideways anymore.
The main players are waiting for this event to ignite liquidity.
Consensus expectation (2.9%) = any deviation will trigger significant volatility.
This is the time point where 'the most likely thousand-point candlestick' can occur before the end of the year.
In summary:
Today at 23:00 is not about releasing data,
It is the ultimate switch prepared for the market by the main players.
The timid leave the market,
Experts will be sleepless tonight.
