In the past two days, Solana has two pieces of information that you must connect together:
Co-founder Anatoly directly stated: 'The total market capitalization of crypto will continue to rise, ultimately turning into a market share war based on revenue redistribution, where only the chains that compete fiercely will survive.'
The prediction market Kalshi announced that it would migrate its prediction market to the Solana blockchain and secured data partnerships with major media outlets like CNN and CNBC, essentially bringing 'traditional media real-time reporting' to Solana.
These two developments have upgraded the positioning of SOL from 'high-performance public chain' to three things:
The settlement layer for high-frequency trading and prediction markets;
The main battlefield for on-chain ‘information derivatives’.
The place where media narratives and on-chain markets are truly connected for the first time.
In the past, everyone traded SOL based on a few keywords:
High TPS, low fees, a booming DeFi ecosystem, and exploding meme popularity.
Now we need to add:
‘Wall Street level event pricing’ also needs to come up.
Look at Kalshi's path:
November trading volume hit a record high;
Last week, it was announced that they raised $1 billion, with a valuation of $11 billion, and the co-founder directly entered the list of ‘the youngest self-made female billionaire’;
One foot on CNN, one foot on CNBC, data is directly embedded into programs and terminal market screens;
Then say: I want to move this entire system to Solana.
This is not simply ‘SOL on a certain project’; this is testing the ‘future financial information flow’ on this chain.
This has two direct impacts on SOL:
On-chain real income is expected to grow steadily.
Prediction markets are naturally high-frequency: each event has entry, exit, and hedging, generating continuous gas.
When CNN and CNBC report these odds as important data, they are essentially giving free advertising to this entire chain system.
SOL's ‘position’ is shifting from a purely DeFi/meme public chain to an ‘information financial infrastructure’.
In the past, you could compare SOL with AVAX and APT, but now you have to look at it together with ‘on-chain exchanges + media + derivatives’ as a whole.
Looking further into the Solana ecosystem:
The public sale of WET from the dark pool DEX HumidiFi was completely snatched by bots, and retail investors couldn’t buy in, causing a stir in the community;
Official choice: directly start over, issue new tokens, restart public sales, and exclude all bot addresses from airdrops and new public sales, while Wetlist and JUP stakers will get airdrop priority.
This sends a very clear signal:
SOL's ecosystem is starting to publicly ‘stand with communities’, daring to fight against bots and scripts, rather than lying flat.
Is SOL here distributing at a high position, or is it changing blood midway?
I look at it from three dimensions:
Valuation: expensive, but not the kind of ‘purely emotional bubble’ expensive
Solana's current market value no longer belongs to the ‘cheap chains’ but is among the top of the second tier.
But the income, trading volume, DEX depth, and meme liquidity behind it are supported by real data, not the kind of ‘daily trading in the millions yet still pretending to be the leader’ nonsense.
Structure: DeFi + meme + infrastructure, forming a ‘multi-round drive’
DeFi provides it with stable fee income;
Meme provides it with high-frequency sentiment and new users;
Prediction markets like Kalshi and dark pools like HumidiFi have raised a layer of ‘professional player’ ceilings for it.
Attitude: Anatoly publicly tells you that in the future it will be ‘chains competing for income,’ not ‘all chains rising together.’
This is a declaration of war against other public chains:
‘Total market value can go up together, but the shares will be redistributed — chains that don’t make money or dare not enter the battlefield will slowly be forgotten by the market.’
My attitude:
If you treat SOL as the ‘next Ethereum,’ I think you will be disappointed; its path is completely different.
If you treat SOL as the ‘operating system for on-chain high-frequency financial systems,’ then this wave of sideways movement is to let hot money leave and allow those who really play on-chain to stand firm.
Short-term will definitely fluctuate, especially macro events like PCE, daily central bank interest rate hikes, and US dollar interest rates will affect risk appetite;
But the midline only focuses on one thing:
Five years later, in terms of the ‘on-chain income’ metric, will SOL be in the top five, or will it be replaced by other chains?
As long as you believe it can be in the top five, then all the current fluctuations are just a game of chip distribution.
