Do you remember the 'prophet' Murad from the last bull market? Yes, the big brother who shouted about the Meme super cycle.
Recently, he came back with a 'big gift'—this time presenting 116 reasons to tell you why the crypto bull market can keep going until 2026, and casually debunking the 'four-year cycle theory'.
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Core controversial statements organized (streamlined version)
Bitcoin may rise 'like a rocket', soaring to $150,000~$200,000.
ETF whales are all 'diamond hands', won't sell even when it drops significantly, their faith is unshakeable.
Stablecoins are undergoing 'epic accumulation', ready to flood the market with money at any moment.
Recently, those selling off are all 'short-term players', while the veterans remain steady on the fishing platform.
This market cycle may need to 'work overtime', lasting four and a half or even five years, directly extending to 2026.
The bears are piling up firewood over their heads, just waiting for a spark to ignite the 'liquidation fireworks show'.
There are currently 30 signals indicating Bitcoin has peaked, and none of them have lit up yet; the market is still early.
2025 may just be a 'halftime break', with a bit of turbulence before continuing the party.
The biggest pain point in the options market is above the current price (102,000 in November, 99,000 in December); the market maker might want to push it up.
Bitcoin is crazily testing between 79,000 and 83,000, with multiple indicators saying: 'Hey, hold on!'
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Why did Bitcoin drop from 125,000 to 80,000?
Murad stated: A group of 'four-year cycle doctrine' believers are selling off madly, coupled with the frightening government shutdown in the US, small institutions are following suit and selling off, and a few whales are directly 'angry selling in protest' due to dissatisfaction with Bitcoin updates—resulting in a 30% drop over six weeks, and the situation was once extremely grim.
But! He said this is just 'washing the盘', and provided 116 reasons to prove the bull market isn't over:
Technical aspect: Although this pullback is severe, similar declines have been seen three times in this cycle, so it’s not surprising. The candlestick formed a 'hammer', which could be a reversal signal. The long-term upward channel hasn’t broken yet, and support levels are being tested repeatedly.
Indicator ghost stories: The weekly RSI is as low as the bottom of the 2018 bear market, and the daily RSI is at a two-and-a-half-year low. MACD has also dropped to historical lows, even falling below 3.5 standard deviations from the 200-day moving average—this probability is less than 1%. The last time it was this bad was during the pandemic crash.
On-chain 'surrender scene': Short-term holders have lost so much that they are 'unrecognized by their mothers', and the profit ratio is at a five-year low. Realized losses have surged to the highest since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023. Bitcoin has been flowing out of exchanges like crazy; historically, such scenes often lead to explosive rallies.
Stablecoin army: The scale of stablecoins continues to expand, ready to buy the dip at any time. The reserve ratio of stablecoins on exchanges is at an all-time low, indicating that 'the bullets are loaded.'
Derivative market drama: Short positions outnumber long positions, with a pile of short 'fuel' stacked above. Funding rates have turned negative, and market panic has reached its peak.
Whale drama: Rumors say a certain whale sold off $1.2 billion in BTC and is done for now, while another rumor suggests Tether quietly transferred $1 billion to Bitfinex, possibly to buy coins.
Emotion at freezing point: The fear and greed index has dropped to 10, with Twitter and YouTube full of lamentations, and KOLs collectively turning into 'big bears'.
ETFs are the 'stabilizing pin': 98% of ETF holders refuse to sell, and institutional funds continue to flow in. The proportion of Bitcoin held by ETFs has risen from 3% to 7.1%, and could potentially reach over 20% in the future—'fiat ammo vs. limited Bitcoin, how can we lose this battle?'
Macroeconomic boost: The Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates, with the probability of another cut in December soaring. Trading volume in US stocks has surged, typically corresponding with market bottoms. The Trump administration is heavily promoting cryptocurrency and is also brewing a $2,000 stimulus check for everyone—$600 in 2020 was enough to get the market excited, what about this time? Can't even imagine.
Global taps are opening: Japan is injecting $135 billion to stimulate the economy, and China also wants to end deflation; global liquidity may be increasing.
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Finally, he mentioned four major risks:
The AI bubble in the US stock market suddenly burst.
Bitcoin whales continue to sell off.
The US dollar suddenly went crazy and strengthened.
Economic cycle reversal, liquidity tightening.
But the overall attitude is:
“Four-year cycle? This time we might have to extend it until 2026. Don't panic, hold steady.”
(Friendly summary: Murad's 116 reasons can probably be condensed into one sentence—enough of the drop, it's time to rise; hold on tight and don't get off the bus.)
