Matrixport: can the May surge of ETH of +38% happen again?
Analysts #Matrixport compare the current situation in the #ETH market to what happened in the spring of 2025 - right before ETH surged by 38% in just a few days. And according to their estimates, the setup is surprisingly similar now.
What's happening in the market right now?
Both ETH and BTC traders sharply reduced their positions in futures. Open interest fell to "unnaturally low" levels. Such a market is called depleted - when there are few open trades, and even a small influx of new positions can quickly push the price up.
This situation was exactly the same in early May - and it became the fuel for the sharp rise of ETH.
Why is the May rally being remembered? In May 2025, the following happened:
- open interest in ETH futures increased from 8 billion $ to 16 billion $ literally in a few days;
- most of the new positions were aimed at growth;
- the market received a sharp impulse, and the price skyrocketed by +38%.
What has changed in the economy of Ethereum? After the recent updates, the network has a new economic model. The market, according to analysts, has not fully accounted for it yet. At the same time:
- large spikes in open interest after upgrades still occur;
- 35.8% of options trades last week were calls, that is, bets on growth;
- traders gradually begin to take positions "just in case".
In other words, the market looks like a spring that is being compressed again. If we look at the dynamics of the funding rate and open interest:
- funding remains low - this is usually an early phase before growth;
- open interest began to rise from a local bottom;
- Ethereum updates again act as potential catalysts.
Matrixport leads to the thought: If an influx of positions begins, the market structure allows ETH to repeat the scenario of rapid impulse.
