Tonight at 23:00, the U.S. Core PCE for September will be released, with only 40 minutes left.
FedWatch shows:
The probability of a 25bp rate cut in December is 87.2%
The probability of keeping it unchanged is 12.8%
On Polymarket, the probability of a 25bp rate cut is even higher, reaching 93%.
It is worth mentioning that two weeks ago, the probability of 'no rate cut' once exceeded that of '25bp rate cut' — this was one of the core reasons for the market weakening at that time.
However, with the recent dovish signals from the Fed and some macro data supporting the rate cut path, the market's expectations for a rate cut have once again been elevated.
It should be emphasized that:
This PCE is the most critical piece of data before next week's FOMC meeting and is very likely to directly influence the Fed's final decision.
