US Macroeconomic Data (PCE): What the Report Showed and Why It Matters

The updated PCE index, which the Fed considers a key indicator of inflation, came in within market expectations. The data did not give a sharp signal in either direction of acceleration or a sharp decline, which maintains the current monetary policy.

1. Core PCE (year over year)

Fact: 2.8%

Forecast: 2.9%

Previous: 2.9%

The indicator remained below the forecast, but progress in reducing inflationary pressure has slowed. This means the Fed retains space for caution before making a decision on rates.

2. Core PCE (month over month)

Fact: 0.2%

Forecast: 0.2%

Previous: 0.2%

The data clearly fell within the consensus. The inflationary momentum is not accelerating, but it's also not slowing down faster than expected.

3. Total PCE (year over year)

Fact: 2.8%

Forecast: 2.8%

Previous: 2.7%

The indicator has stabilized. An increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value signals that the fight against inflation is not over, and price dynamics remain sensitive to energy prices and services.

4. Total PCE (month over month)

Fact: 0.3%

Forecast: 0.3%

Previous: 0.3%

The pace of price growth is stable. For the Fed, this is confirmation that the economy is not overheating.