V340RK
Публікую логіку ринку, а не «поради». Пояснюю тренди, цикли, ліквідність. Слідкуй за ходом великих гравців.
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Signs of a market bubble forming in gold and risky assets: BIS position
The Bank for International Settlements (#BIS ) has recorded a strengthening of imbalances in global markets. Gold, which is traditionally considered a safe-haven asset, has ceased to perform its classic function and has started to behave like a highly speculative instrument. This creates signs of a bubble forming alongside the overheating of U.S. stock indices.
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Financial flows in American spot ETFs: weekly dynamics
In the past week, the market recorded mixed capital flows among key cryptocurrencies #etf . Investors altered their risk structure, which affected the capital redistribution among individual assets.
#bitcoin ($BTC )
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $87.77 million. This may signal a decrease in risk appetite among institutional players or profit-taking after volatile periods.
#bitcoin ($BTC )
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $87.77 million. This may signal a decrease in risk appetite among institutional players or profit-taking after volatile periods.
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Glassnode: The BTC accumulation indicator is approaching peak values
Analysts #Glassnode recorded a sharp increase in the indicator #BitcoinTrendAccumulationScore , which rose to a level of 0.99. This is one of the highest readings in recent cycles and signals that nearly all classes of investors — from large players to retail traders — are actively increasing positions in #bitcoin .
A historically similar pattern has emerged in two scenarios: before a trend change or during moments of intense market rallies when demand increases and supply in circulation decreases. Accumulation takes on a systematic nature, forming the basis for medium-term price movements.
A historically similar pattern has emerged in two scenarios: before a trend change or during moments of intense market rallies when demand increases and supply in circulation decreases. Accumulation takes on a systematic nature, forming the basis for medium-term price movements.
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Bitcoin in the trap phase: key market signals and benchmarks for 2026–2027
1. Market context: correction as part of the cycle
The current correction in the crypto market is accompanied by the unloading of weak participants. For short-term investors, this creates panic, but from a cyclical analysis perspective, such declines are natural. Corrections are preceded by both prolonged phases of decline and subsequent growth impulses.
The current correction in the crypto market is accompanied by the unloading of weak participants. For short-term investors, this creates panic, but from a cyclical analysis perspective, such declines are natural. Corrections are preceded by both prolonged phases of decline and subsequent growth impulses.
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The boom of digital treasuries has ended in failure — Bloomberg
The ecosystem #DigitalAssets Treasury (#DAT ), which just a few months ago seemed like a new phase of corporate finance, is experiencing a sharp collapse. The model, built by analogy with Michael Saylor's strategy, has shown systemic vulnerabilities.
1. How the DAT model worked
The principle was simple: companies raised capital, converted it into crypto assets, and demonstrated market dynamics that outpaced the growth of the assets themselves. In the first half of the year, this approach had an explosive effect. The stocks of individual companies soared by hundreds and thousands of percent. SharpLink demonstrated over +2600%, ALT5 Sigma received significant attention due to the involvement of members of the Trump family.
1. How the DAT model worked
The principle was simple: companies raised capital, converted it into crypto assets, and demonstrated market dynamics that outpaced the growth of the assets themselves. In the first half of the year, this approach had an explosive effect. The stocks of individual companies soared by hundreds and thousands of percent. SharpLink demonstrated over +2600%, ALT5 Sigma received significant attention due to the involvement of members of the Trump family.
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Key events of the week that may impact the markets
December 8, Monday
No significant macroeconomic publications are scheduled. Volatility is low, the market is largely consolidating positions in anticipation of mid-week events.
December 9, Tuesday
USA — ADP #Nonfarm Employment (November), 16:15
Intermediate labor market indicator. Strong deviations may change expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy.
No significant macroeconomic publications are scheduled. Volatility is low, the market is largely consolidating positions in anticipation of mid-week events.
December 9, Tuesday
USA — ADP #Nonfarm Employment (November), 16:15
Intermediate labor market indicator. Strong deviations may change expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy.
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SEC Forecast: US financial markets are transitioning to blockchain
Head #SEC Paul Atkins stated that within two years, the entire financial infrastructure of the USA will be transitioned to blockchain. This includes the stock market, bond trading, and derivatives, clearing, and settlements. Essentially, the regulator acknowledges: the full on-chain model is becoming the baseline standard.
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US Macroeconomic Data (PCE): What the Report Showed and Why It Matters
The updated PCE index, which the Fed considers a key indicator of inflation, came in within market expectations. The data did not give a sharp signal in either direction of acceleration or a sharp decline, which maintains the current monetary policy.
1. Core PCE (year over year)
Fact: 2.8%
Forecast: 2.9%
Previous: 2.9%
The indicator remained below the forecast, but progress in reducing inflationary pressure has slowed. This means the Fed retains space for caution before making a decision on rates.
2. Core PCE (month over month)
Fact: 0.2%
Forecast: 0.2%
Previous: 0.2%
The data clearly fell within the consensus. The inflationary momentum is not accelerating, but it's also not slowing down faster than expected.
3. Total PCE (year over year)
Fact: 2.8%
Forecast: 2.8%
Previous: 2.7%
The indicator has stabilized. An increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value signals that the fight against inflation is not over, and price dynamics remain sensitive to energy prices and services.
4. Total PCE (month over month)
Fact: 0.3%
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.3%
The pace of price growth is stable. For the Fed, this is confirmation that the economy is not overheating.
The updated PCE index, which the Fed considers a key indicator of inflation, came in within market expectations. The data did not give a sharp signal in either direction of acceleration or a sharp decline, which maintains the current monetary policy.
1. Core PCE (year over year)
Fact: 2.8%
Forecast: 2.9%
Previous: 2.9%
The indicator remained below the forecast, but progress in reducing inflationary pressure has slowed. This means the Fed retains space for caution before making a decision on rates.
2. Core PCE (month over month)
Fact: 0.2%
Forecast: 0.2%
Previous: 0.2%
The data clearly fell within the consensus. The inflationary momentum is not accelerating, but it's also not slowing down faster than expected.
3. Total PCE (year over year)
Fact: 2.8%
Forecast: 2.8%
Previous: 2.7%
The indicator has stabilized. An increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value signals that the fight against inflation is not over, and price dynamics remain sensitive to energy prices and services.
4. Total PCE (month over month)
Fact: 0.3%
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.3%
The pace of price growth is stable. For the Fed, this is confirmation that the economy is not overheating.
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MICHAEL BURY WARNS: THE RISK OF A MASSIVE MARKET COLLAPSE INCREASES
Legendary investor Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 crisis, is once again warning about a possible systemic collapse of the American stock market. In his opinion, the upcoming decline may exceed the scale of the dot-com bubble of 2000.
Revaluation of the technology sector and AI companies
Revaluation of the technology sector and AI companies
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The USA has legalized cryptocurrency trading on federally regulated exchanges
#CFTC announced one of the most significant shifts in cryptocurrency regulation in history. For the first time, digital assets are allowed to be traded on fully federally regulated exchanges in the USA. This decision moves cryptocurrency from the 'off-system' zone into the realm of rules that have been in place for traditional financial markets for decades.
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CryptoQuant: Strategy moves into defense mode
At the company #strategy , led by Michael Saylor, there has been the most significant strategic shift in the last five years. Against the backdrop of a changing market cycle and worsening macro conditions, the company is focusing not on aggressive accumulation #BTC , but on forming a substantial dollar reserve.
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Binance launches Junior accounts: a strategy on the way to 1 billion users
#Binance announced the launch of Binance Junior — a separate application for users aged 6 to 17 years. This is a step that fits into the company's long-term strategy for scaling the global audience and forming a new generation of digital finance users.
1. Product concept
1. Product concept
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US Macroeconomic Data: The Service Sector Remains Stable Despite Inflation Pressure
Recent ISM data for November shows a mixed but overall stable picture in the non-manufacturing sector of the US.
1. Purchasing Managers' Index (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI)
Fact: 52.6
Forecast: 52.0
Previous: 52.4
The figure exceeded expectations. The services sector maintains moderate growth despite cost pressures and weaker employment trends.
2. Business Activity Index
Fact: 54.5
Forecast: 54.3
The figure remains above the growth threshold. This indicates sustained domestic demand and operational activity among companies.
3. Employment Index in the Non-Manufacturing Sector
Fact: 48.9
Forecast: 48.2
Employment remains in contraction territory. Companies are hiring cautiously, adapting to high rates and uncertainty regarding economic growth rates.
4. Prices in the Services Sector Index (ISM Prices Paid)
Fact: 65.4
Forecast: 70.0
Although cost pressures persist, the figure turned out lower than expectations. This may indicate a partial cooling of inflation components.
Summary
The services market in the US demonstrates resilience, but weak employment and high cost levels pose risks to business activity.
Recent ISM data for November shows a mixed but overall stable picture in the non-manufacturing sector of the US.
1. Purchasing Managers' Index (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI)
Fact: 52.6
Forecast: 52.0
Previous: 52.4
The figure exceeded expectations. The services sector maintains moderate growth despite cost pressures and weaker employment trends.
2. Business Activity Index
Fact: 54.5
Forecast: 54.3
The figure remains above the growth threshold. This indicates sustained domestic demand and operational activity among companies.
3. Employment Index in the Non-Manufacturing Sector
Fact: 48.9
Forecast: 48.2
Employment remains in contraction territory. Companies are hiring cautiously, adapting to high rates and uncertainty regarding economic growth rates.
4. Prices in the Services Sector Index (ISM Prices Paid)
Fact: 65.4
Forecast: 70.0
Although cost pressures persist, the figure turned out lower than expectations. This may indicate a partial cooling of inflation components.
Summary
The services market in the US demonstrates resilience, but weak employment and high cost levels pose risks to business activity.
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US Macroeconomic Data: ADP Report Shows Sharp Cooling of the Labor Market
The latest release on the US labor market from ADP for November showed a significantly weaker result than expected.
Actual Value: −32 thousand.
Forecast: +5 thousand.
Previous Value: +42 thousand.
The decline in employment in the non-farm sector signals a noticeable cooling of the labor market. This intensifies the discussion about the pace of economic slowdown and opens additional space for a more dovish Fed policy in the coming months.
The drop in the indicator may influence the committee's position when making a decision on the rate on December 9. The market is seeing rising expectations for a deepening cycle of monetary policy easing, especially against the backdrop of weak ISM data and a negative trend in the manufacturing sector.
ADP does not always perfectly correlate with the official NFP, however, under current conditions, weak indicators become an important signal for investors. The market's reaction in the coming days will depend on whether other macro indicators confirm the trend towards economic slowdown.
#USJobsData
The latest release on the US labor market from ADP for November showed a significantly weaker result than expected.
Actual Value: −32 thousand.
Forecast: +5 thousand.
Previous Value: +42 thousand.
The decline in employment in the non-farm sector signals a noticeable cooling of the labor market. This intensifies the discussion about the pace of economic slowdown and opens additional space for a more dovish Fed policy in the coming months.
The drop in the indicator may influence the committee's position when making a decision on the rate on December 9. The market is seeing rising expectations for a deepening cycle of monetary policy easing, especially against the backdrop of weak ISM data and a negative trend in the manufacturing sector.
ADP does not always perfectly correlate with the official NFP, however, under current conditions, weak indicators become an important signal for investors. The market's reaction in the coming days will depend on whether other macro indicators confirm the trend towards economic slowdown.
#USJobsData
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Financial flows in US spot ETFs: dynamics over the past day
The American market for spot ETFs continues to show uneven capital flows among major cryptocurrency assets:
#bitcoin ($BTC ): inflows totaled +58.5 million dollars. Demand for Bitcoin remains stable, supported by high trading activity in ETFs.
#Ethereum ($ETH ): recorded outflow of -9.91 million dollars. Investors remain cautious regarding Ethereum amidst market fluctuations.
#solana ($SOL ): inflows of +45.77 million dollars, indicating increased institutional interest in the Solana network.
#xrp : one of the strongest results — +67.74 million dollars. The asset has shown its twelfth consecutive green trading day.
#Hedera ($HBAR): a small but steady inflow of +1.78 million dollars.
#Dogecoin ($DOGE): capital flow of +513 thousand dollars.
#Litecoin ($LTC): neutral result, no inflows recorded.
It is also worth noting that the trading volume of Bitcoin ETF IBIT from BlackRock exceeded 3.7 billion dollars in one day, outpacing the activity of VOO from Vanguard, the largest ETF on the S&P 500 with a volume of 3.2 billion dollars. This highlights a shift in institutional priorities and the establishment of Bitcoin as a full-fledged macro-financial asset in the structure of market liquidity.
The American market for spot ETFs continues to show uneven capital flows among major cryptocurrency assets:
#bitcoin ($BTC ): inflows totaled +58.5 million dollars. Demand for Bitcoin remains stable, supported by high trading activity in ETFs.
#Ethereum ($ETH ): recorded outflow of -9.91 million dollars. Investors remain cautious regarding Ethereum amidst market fluctuations.
#solana ($SOL ): inflows of +45.77 million dollars, indicating increased institutional interest in the Solana network.
#xrp : one of the strongest results — +67.74 million dollars. The asset has shown its twelfth consecutive green trading day.
#Hedera ($HBAR): a small but steady inflow of +1.78 million dollars.
#Dogecoin ($DOGE): capital flow of +513 thousand dollars.
#Litecoin ($LTC): neutral result, no inflows recorded.
It is also worth noting that the trading volume of Bitcoin ETF IBIT from BlackRock exceeded 3.7 billion dollars in one day, outpacing the activity of VOO from Vanguard, the largest ETF on the S&P 500 with a volume of 3.2 billion dollars. This highlights a shift in institutional priorities and the establishment of Bitcoin as a full-fledged macro-financial asset in the structure of market liquidity.
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Ethereum is preparing for a major Fusaka update at the end of 2025
The update #Fusaka will be a key step in the technical evolution of Ethereum. It aims to enhance the scalability, resilience, and efficiency of the entire ecosystem without a radical restructuring of the underlying layer.
1. PeerDAS: a new data distribution model
Fusaka implements the PeerDAS technology — a mechanism that allows distributing the volume of data across a wide network of nodes. This reduces the load on individual nodes and ensures the stability of the network under increased traffic. #Ethereum gains the ability to process more transactions without changing the fundamental architecture.
1. PeerDAS: a new data distribution model
Fusaka implements the PeerDAS technology — a mechanism that allows distributing the volume of data across a wide network of nodes. This reduces the load on individual nodes and ensures the stability of the network under increased traffic. #Ethereum gains the ability to process more transactions without changing the fundamental architecture.
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Growth of BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin Options: A New Level of Institutional Demand
The volume of spot Bitcoin options from BlackRock (IBIT) has surged and placed the instrument among the top ten largest open positions among all American options products. This is one of the most significant signals of BTC transitioning into the category of macro-assets that are considered alongside traditional financial instruments.
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The Conclusion of QT: One of the Most Important Points in Modern Monetary History
On December 1, 2025, the Federal Reserve officially concluded the cycle of quantitative tightening (QT), which lasted for more than two and a half years. During this period, the Fed withdrew over $2 trillion from the financial system, reducing its balance from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion. This is the largest and longest phase of liquidity withdrawal in the history of modern markets.
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The announcement of the new Fed chairman could happen as soon as this week
Tensions are rising in the U.S. over President Donald Trump's decision regarding the candidate for the head of the Federal Reserve. Sources, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, report that Trump has already made his choice, and an official announcement may come before Christmas.
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Massive buildup of short positions in BTC and ETH: key risks
The market continues to show an elevated level of speculative activity, and a key factor in recent days has been the rapid increase in open interest in SHORT positions for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Liquidation data indicates that the market is accumulating a critically large volume of shorts, which could serve as fuel for an impulsive upward movement.
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