Brothers, I am Mig.
Put down the K-line chart in your hand and let me say a few words. Right now, the market is filled with an extremely strange and stimulating atmosphere—technical and news fronts are about to clash!
Which side you stand on determines whether you will eat meat or cut meat tonight.
First, let's break through that layer of 'good news' paper.
Last night, the news about the 'September core PCE cooling' had everyone online shouting 'rate cuts are stable, the bull is back quickly.' But let me pour some cold water on you to wake you up:
The data is 'expired': this is September's data! The Federal Reserve is holding a meeting in December next week, but they don’t have October inflation or November employment reports. It's like the commander is looking at a map from a month ago before deciding on a full-scale attack. Do you dare to believe it all?
Cooling down, but not 'cold' enough: The core PCE has decreased from 2.9% to 2.8%, which looks a bit better, but still far exceeds the Fed's long-term target of 2%. This is called 'cooling down', not 'flash freezing'. This gives the Fed a reason to wait and see, rather than immediate action as ironclad evidence.
Market's game point: This 'expired good news' mainly serves to support market sentiment, preventing panic, rather than providing fuel for a violent surge. It acts like a safety cushion, but underneath the cushion, the technical knives may already be drawn.
Second, hold tightly to this 'reality knife' of technicals.
Looking at the four-hour chart, all the flashy news must kneel before the K-line shape:
MACD clear death cross: The yellow and white lines cross downward above the 0 axis at a high position, indicating a textbook signal of bullish momentum exhaustion and bearish forces beginning to exert strength. Don't fool yourself; this is 'the decline is not over.'
Resistance level is the ceiling: The upper level of 94000 is the first ghost gate of the rebound, and 98000 is a heavy resistance zone. In a death cross trend, every rebound approaching here is an opportunity for you to reduce positions or manage risks, not a call to chase after the rise.
Where is the support level? My view is: the range of 87000-84000 is a must-pass question. This is the short-term lifeline of the bulls. If it holds and rebounds here, the market can still oscillate at a high level. But if it breaks down with volume, the next test will be the 'bottom support' at 80600. The market is not purely black and white; it is tested layer by layer.
Mig's view is very clear: In the short term, BTC is still oscillating with a bearish bias; the death cross is not over, so don't rush to jump in. Even if there is a rebound, the pressure zone of 94000-98000 is not that easy to surpass. But if it really drops to around 87000 or 84000, it is actually a good opportunity to build positions in batches; don’t be greedy, buy in several times.
What should retail investors do?
Position control: Don't go all in! In this market, leave half cash to stay calm.
Batch positioning: If it drops to the support level, first try a small position; if it breaks, wait for the next one.
Don't trade coins based on news: News is a booster, not a steering wheel. If the K-line doesn't strengthen, any good news is useless.
This market where technicals and news clash is the most deadly. It looks like it should rise, but a chase leads to a trap; it looks like it should fall, but a cut leads to a jump. Many brothers are not losing in technicals but in emotions, losing because no one is helping you watch the rapidly changing market language and capital flow.
This is such a key point. I have set several key price alerts in the village; whether it's a continuation of the rebound or a breakdown, I will provide interpretations and response strategies at the first moment.
If you don’t want to run naked in such chaos, pay attention to Mig. I will share with you the core pressure and support points in my tracking system in the village and chat room, which determine the life and death of the market. Let’s wait for the market to give an answer, and then calmly pull the trigger.
