Brothers, Mig is back again.
Yesterday, SOL dropped to the range of 133-128 that Mig said, and the price of 130.5 is just right, neither more nor less.
A fan asked me: 'Are we still bearish today, or will SOL have a rebound?' No rush, Mig will soon bring you the analysis of today's SOL, the death cross reappears, but Mig smells a hint of a short squeeze!
1. In-depth analysis: The overlooked 'impact of inflation cooling' at a bombshell level
Last night's core PCE data for September fell to 2.8%, which is no ordinary news. It is the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator. Its cooling directly means:
The door to interest rate cuts is opening wider: despite strong employment data, inflation continues to ease, providing the Federal Reserve with crucial 'policy shift space'. The market trades on expectations, and this data reinforces the long-term narrative of 'interest rate cuts next year'.
The 'ballast' for risky assets: For high-beta assets like cryptocurrencies, liquidity expectations are the core support for their long-term valuation. Controlled inflation = alleviation of liquidity tightening anxiety = market risk appetite is expected to gradually recover.
In simple terms: the macro environment is shifting from 'high-pressure suppression' to 'gentle observation', which is a slow variable benefit for the crypto market.
2. The truth of the technicals: 'The death cross above the 0 axis' may be a golden pit.
On the four-hour chart, the MACD white and yellow lines have indeed crossed downward above the 0 axis, which is a warning of 'bull exhaustion'.
Above are three levels of resistance at 140, 147, and 153, like three large mountains. Below are three levels of support at 130, 125, and 120, each one more critical than the last.
In the short term, bears indeed have the upper hand. However, the market is determined by more than just the charts; remember what Mig said, the news is always greater than the technicals!!
Combined with the PCE news released last night, it further increased the probability of interest rate cuts, which is a favorable wind direction for the market!
My core view: Is it realistic for SOL to directly reverse and surge to 153 tonight? No. But is it also unlikely to drop to 120 in one go? Yes! The most likely scenario is a 'sharp drop to test the bottom → quick rebound' script. The position at 130 is very critical, as it is both previous support and a psychological barrier. If it drops here and shows a 'large volume lower shadow', it is likely a signal that the main players have finished washing out positions and the rebound begins. The first target for the rebound is 140; it must stabilize there to look at 147.
What should retail investors do? Remember these three points:
If you have positions, don’t panic and cut: If your position is not heavy, you can add a little near 130, but remember it should be a 'small add', not an all-in. If the rebound can't go above 140, take some profit first.
Those waiting to board should heed the signals: do not chase highs or sell lows. Be patient for one of two signals: either a substantial volume stabilizing at 140, or wait for a clear 'volume contraction and consolidation' in the 125-120 area before considering.
For those with no positions, it's a good time to observe: now is the best learning opportunity. Watch how the market tests support and how the main players engage in psychological warfare. Discipline is always more reliable than luck.
If you are also tired of being swayed by emotions and want to learn to find opportunities in panic and stay calm in fervor, pay attention to 'Mig'. I will share more detailed entry points, position management principles, and those 'counterintuitive' practical signals in the village.
I will tell you: how to determine trends using technical analysis, how to use news to aid decision-making, and how to manage positions to protect your capital.
Remember one thing: when the market is bad, surviving is winning. Pay attention to Mig and participate in every attack by the villagers of Mig! Mig will announce specific entry times and real-time news every day in the village!
