This weekend's market is reminiscent of the tranquility before the 2018 bear market—BTC is repeatedly oscillating between 89000 and 91000, with the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart tightening more than my wallet. The essence of the weekend market: a 'false move' under liquidity exhaustion.
Whenever the weekend arrives, institutional funds collectively go offline, and the market becomes a playground for retail investors and quantitative machines. Data shows that the average trading volume on weekends is 40% lower than on weekdays, which explains why there are often strange price movements that 'spike and then retract.'
Key signal recognition:
A real breakthrough must be accompanied by a volume increase of over 200%, otherwise it is mostly a trap to lure in buyers.
The three time slots of 0-1 AM, 6-8 AM, and 5 PM are most prone to false breakouts
My Strategy:
Only use 5% of the position to test the waters on weekends, strictly control single-stop losses within 2%
Focus on observing the Fear and Greed Index; consider accumulating chips in batches when it is below 20
Blood and Tears Case: Last year on a certain Sunday, I heavily invested chasing ETH breakout, resulting in insufficient liquidity causing slippage of 3%; ultimately, I earned on the index but lost money!
Long Position Opportunity: Only take action when two certain signals appear
The current market is like a stretched rubber band, and a direction choice is imminent. But I never gamble on direction; I just wait for the market to give me a ticket:
Bullish counterattack after filling the gap
Key Level: Around 87600 (December 4th gap)
Confirmation Conditions: Price reaches and shows a long lower shadow + trading volume surges 3 times
Target Level: 94000 (previous high suppression zone)
Right-side pursuit of strong breakout
Key Level: Stabilizing above 90000 with increasing volume and not breaking on pullback
Cheating Technique: Synchronize observation of whether ETH breaks the 3050 resistance level
Stop-loss Level: Exit immediately if the price falls below 89500 (cost line protection)
Short Position Risk: Current cost-performance ratio is extremely low
Although I have recently been continuously profitable on short positions, shorting at this moment is like playing with fire:
Technical Contradiction: The 4-hour MACD shows a bottom divergence, and short-term downward momentum is weakening
On-chain Data: BTC net outflow from exchanges has continued for 4 days, indicating that large holders are reluctant to sell
Only Opportunity: Price rebounds to the 91500-92500 range and shows a volume-price divergence (new price high but shrinking transaction volume)
Discipline Reminder: Never hold positions over the weekend; I set automatic stop-loss orders, and if the price fluctuates more than 3%, I automatically shut down to accompany my child!
Survival Manual for Retail Investors: Three iron rules for weekend trading
Position Halving Principle: Weekend positions should not exceed 50% of weekday positions to prevent liquidity traps
Time Window Limitation: Operate only during Beijing time 8-10 AM (Asian session active) and 8-10 PM (overlap of European and American sessions)
Stop-loss Doubling Rule: Normally set a 1% stop-loss, expand to 2% on weekends to combat sudden spikes
Real Data Evidence: In the past year, the liquidation volume on weekends accounted for 37% of the entire week, with 78% occurring during unordered fluctuations
Lastly, let me say something heart-wrenching
This weekend, 90% of people will frequently trade due to 'itchy hands', ultimately contributing fees to exchanges. Meanwhile, the truly smart ones set price alerts on Friday, then shut down to go hiking—markets are always open, but losing all your capital is truly the end. #BTC If you are trapped in confusion about how to operate, follow me, and I will use practical experience to help you avoid pitfalls and steadily protect your capital while slowly earning profits!
