$ASTER Why did it fall below 0.5?
1. Continuous selling by the project party = one of the biggest bearish factors
As the 'largest market maker', if the project party continues to dump in the market, the effect will be:
Market liquidity absorbed by the project party —— Long-term downward pressure exists
The secondary market will never have 'real demand' to withstand the continuous selling pressure from the project party
Even if there is a short-term rebound, it will become a better exit point for the project party
Once this structure is formed, the price will decline for a long time until the market reverses or the selling pressure is exhausted.
2. Weak repurchase strength = unwilling to support the price
If the project party really wants to stabilize the coin price, they will use two strategies:
1. Strong repurchase (stabilizing the price)
2. Increase lock-up / Reduce circulation
The team is unwilling to consume funds to maintain the secondary market
Or the project party lacks cash flow
Or the selling pressure itself is far greater than the repurchase funds
3. When the market rises, ASTER does not rise but falls = typical weak coin characteristic
These types of coins usually fall into two situations:
① The team speeds up selling during the market rebound
Because liquidity improves, it is easier to sell.
② The entire project lacks real capital inflow
Market confidence is insufficient, causing funds to be unwilling to enter.
In either case, this is called relative weakness
Weak coins tend to fall harder than others when the market adjusts.
4. Probability of falling below 0.5
Continuous selling by the project party (strong bearish)
Weak repurchase (unable to support)
Market is weaker than the overall market (no one to take over)
Currently hovering around 1 dollar and weakening (bad trend)
If the market experiences a drop of 10% to 15% later, ASTER is likely to see:
A decline effect of 2 to 3 times (weak coin characteristic)
That is:
Market drops 10% → ASTER may drop 20–25%
Market drops 15% → ASTER may drop 30%
Estimating around the current 1 dollar:
Dropping to 0.7–0.8 is common
Falling below 0.5 is a high-probability event
As long as the market adjusts slightly, 0.5 may not hold.
The key question: When will it definitely break 0.5?
If any of the following situations occur, breaking below 0.5 is almost inevitable:
1. The project party continues to sell every day
2. Circulation continues to increase (unlocking / airdrop / release)
3. The market experiences a drop of >10%
4. Continuous outflow of funds, buying pressure disappears
5. Bullish confidence collapses (the longer the time, the more dangerous)
Does #Aster meet the above conditions?
