The probability of a rate hike for the yen on December 19 has surged to 76% (according to swap market data). Historically, yen rate hikes have often triggered fluctuations in global financial markets, making it a potential "black swan" catalyst.

The yen's monetary policy has always been closely tied to the dollar, and this rate hike is not without coordination with U.S. policies—after all, the Federal Reserve is simultaneously sending strong signals for rate cuts. This combination of "rising yen and falling dollar" may seem contradictory, but it is, in fact, a trade-off achieved through exchange rates and interest rates between the U.S. and Japan.

Currently, the market is in a sensitive period of policy differentiation, and the volatility of risk assets like ETH is bound to increase. A reminder to all friends: when bottom-fishing, be sure to have stop-losses in place, strictly control your positions, and avoid blindly heavy bets; otherwise, an unexpected downturn could leave you exiting the market in dismay. #ETH