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Good evening, brothers. How about this wave of increase? Even if there are no positions, as long as you watched my market analysis from yesterday afternoon, you won't be flustered in this wave of increase because everything is within expectation. This early warning was unfortunately packed by the old Mexican again! What do you say, brothers, it's easy to handle! #ETH

注意！凌晨3点美联储放大招，降息25个基点基本稳了，但真正的重头戏是鲍威尔的讲话！

他嘴里的一句话，就能决定币圈和股市的涨跌——要是说“这次降完就停了”，市场直接凉半截；要是留个“以后还能降”的口子，那咱们就能接着玩！

还记得10月那次吗？鲍威尔一句“通胀可能反弹，12月降息没谱”，直接把市场搞懵了。现在通胀是缓了点，但就业忽好忽坏，外加财政、关税一堆麻烦事，美联储自己都不知道下一步咋走。

我猜鲍威尔这次会软一点，短期对币圈和股市是好事，能热闹几天。但别忘12月19号日本可能加息，那又是个大雷！

听我一句劝，今晚求稳的千万别瞎操作！等消息出完，尤其是鲍威尔讲完话，市场方向明了了，再跟着趋势跑也不迟。这种大场面，不亏钱就等于赚了！#

In 15-minute candlestick charts, when a "bullish engulfing" pattern appears (a bullish candle engulfs the previous bearish candle), or after a pullback in the 3310-3320 range with a "small bullish candle" closing, you can consider taking a small long position, setting a stop loss below 3300.
If you want to be more cautious, you can look at the 1-hour candlestick chart; if it pulls back near 3300 and shows patterns like "hammer" or "morning star" bullish candlestick patterns, accompanied by a decrease in trading volume (indicating weakened selling pressure), then consider entering with a stop loss set below 3280.

Note, if the candlestick directly breaks below 3280, it indicates insufficient bullish momentum in the short term, and you should abandon the long position;
If it quickly spikes up to 3397 and then closes with a "large bearish candle," take profit and exit promptly.

12.10 Afternoon Bitcoin Market Analysis (Federal Reserve Meeting Preview)

Bitcoin is currently fluctuating narrowly between the middle and upper bands of the Bollinger Bands, with the opening of the Bollinger Bands narrowing, highlighting the unclear short-term direction; the MACD shows a golden cross above the zero axis but the red bars are shortening, indicating weakened bullish momentum and signs of a top divergence. The RSI is neutral to strong on the daily chart, not reaching the overbought zone, still retaining upward space. The 4-hour level is at a key resistance area, and the short-term trend is likely to be dominated by the results of the Federal Reserve meeting.

Operation Suggestions (Daytime Trading)

Bitcoin: Enter long positions lightly in the range of 91500-92000, aiming for 94000-95000.

⚠️ Market fluctuations in real-time, the article is time-sensitive, actual entry should be based on real-time guidance.

In the early hours, BTC dropped to 89600 and then rebounded to 91300, facing resistance. In the morning, the increased short positions exerted pressure, and the price fell back to around 89800, maintaining an overall range-bound oscillation pattern.

From a technical perspective, the moving average system continues to move downwards, suppressing upward movement; although the daily chart recorded two consecutive bullish candles, the four-hour level shows clear signs of pressure and decline—after reaching the upper track of the upward channel, there was a rapid retreat, and the bullish momentum is gradually weakening, without breaking through the previous high points, resulting in a damaged technical formation. The one-hour level shows repeated oscillation without a clear directional trend, with the 90,000 mark becoming the core battleground for bulls and bears, and the market still adheres to a high short position layout strategy!

Operating Suggestions

BTC rebounds to the range of 90800-91600 for incremental short position layout, with the lower target looking towards 89300-88300, strictly maintaining stop-loss, and following the trend.

The core idea of maintaining a high position in ETH remains unchanged. If there is a rebound to the 3140-3190 range, short positions can be gradually established. The target below is aimed at the 3050-2950 area. Strictly set stop losses and follow the trend. #ETH走势分析

12.9 ZEC Trading Strategy
Resistance Game Under Volatility, Focus on High Selling and Low Buying

ZEC price has reached a strong resistance zone near the previous high, and it is highly likely to maintain a bearish oscillation pattern during the afternoon. The core operation focuses on high selling and low buying, and it is essential to strictly control positions and stop-loss discipline.

The current market is in a critical period of resistance game after a rebound: the 409-415 range is a previous area of concentrated trading, with significant selling pressure accumulated; the hourly MACD shows a top divergence signal, and the RSI indicator is approaching the overbought zone, with short-term pullback demand continuously increasing. If the price breaks through the 415 integer level with volume, the trend will strengthen; otherwise, it will maintain a downward oscillation, testing the support level below.

Trading Strategy

Long Position Range: 402-405, gradually entering with light positions, stop-loss at 398 (a drop below this level is regarded as a failure of support), target at 410-414, taking profit in batches near 415, refusing to chase highs.
Short Position Range: 412-415, gradually laying out with light positions, stop-loss at 418 (if it breaks out with volume, immediate stop-loss is required), target at 404-400, reduce positions or fully close near 398.

Operation Key Points

1. Strictly control positions within 20%, quick in and out, firmly avoid holding positions;
2. Pay close attention to the gains and losses at the 415 resistance level and 400 support level, and adjust strategies immediately after breaking levels;
3. If U.S. stocks fluctuate significantly or the cryptocurrency market weakens, prioritize short strategies or observe to avoid risks.

#美联储降息预测 #参与创作者认证计划月领 #加密市场观察

This wave should have at least eaten 120 points, right #ETH

12.8 Afternoon session SOL Technical Analysis

SOL's 1-hour cycle presents a rhythm of 'V-shaped rebound - surge and drop - oscillation repair': the current price of 135 is operating above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, with the upper track at 136.35 coinciding with previous highs forming strong resistance, and the lower track at 129.04 providing support, overall in a strong oscillation range between the middle and upper tracks. Previously, the price quickly plunged to a low of 127.55 before a strong rebound, surging to 136.33 before a significant drop, forming a sharp peak pattern, highlighting significant selling pressure in the 136-136.5 range; the current small upward rebound is a weak repair after a sharp drop, oscillating around the rebound high and low points.

In terms of indicators, the KDJ three lines have been continuously declining from the overbought area (J value once broke 100), with the J value turning down after falling below 50, reflecting a rapid decline in short-term bullish momentum, currently entering an oscillation phase of long and short competition; the MACD narrow red bars have slightly narrowed, indicating that the medium-term bullish trend has not been broken, with short-term only being the digestion of momentum after the rise.

Short-term strategy
Oscillation range: 1-4 hours likely to maintain the 132-136 range整理压力位: 135-136 (previous highs + Bollinger Bands upper track), near 138
Support level: 132-133 (Bollinger Bands middle track), 129-130 (Bollinger Bands lower track + previous rebound level)
Operation suggestion: A light short can be made in the rebound range of 136-139, targeting 131-128; if it stabilizes above 135, it may test the 138 resistance again; if it falls below 132, it is likely to retest the 130-129 range.

The above is only a personal technical analysis suggestion, for reference only, specific operations based on the layout of Mo Yu Shi Pan!

The concubine returns to the vicinity of 3030-2980 for more, looking up at 3150-3250. If it breaks through, then look up at 3310. $ETH

December 7 ETH
Current Binance USDT perpetual contract ETH price is $3044.14, up 0.64% for the day, with a net capital inflow of $15.21 million. Market capital preference is currently higher than BTC, with long and short positions battling in the $3000-3150 range, and overall sentiment is cautious.

From a technical perspective, different timeframes show differentiated characteristics: the 15-minute chart maintains a narrow oscillation between $3024.35 and $3056.78, with no clear directional guidance; the 1-hour chart peaked at $3068.58 before a slight pullback, with volume increasing alongside the rebound, indicating relatively sufficient short-term rebound momentum; the 4-hour chart is clearer, with a previous peak of $3239.27 followed by a pullback, currently oscillating near the key support level of $3000, which has become a short-term demarcation point for long and short positions.

In terms of operational strategy, it is recommended to follow a range trading framework: as long as the support at $3000 is not broken and the resistance at $3150 remains intact, light positions can be taken for low buys and high sells in the $3020-3100 range, maintaining flexible positions; if the price stabilizes above the $3150 resistance level, one can follow through with long positions, targeting the $3200-3250 range; if it effectively breaks below the $3000 support, timely position reduction is necessary to control risk, and attention can be given to the $2900-2950 range for support conditions.

It should be noted that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is approaching on December 9-10, and the uncertainty in monetary policy expectations will amplify market volatility. Given ETH's high elasticity, the volatility may be greater than BTC's. It is recommended to reduce position sizes and adjust operational pace only after breaking through key ranges, to avoid heavy exposure to high volatility risks.

12.7【BTC Market Analysis】
The current Binance USDT perpetual contract BTC price is 89559 USD, with a slight increase of 0.02% during the day. However, there has been a net outflow of over 1.04 billion CNY, with both bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war in the 88000-94000 USD range, and market sentiment remains cautious.

From a technical perspective, the short-term cycle shows significant volatility characteristics: the 15-minute chart maintains a narrow consolidation between 88870-90257 USD, with no clear breakout signal yet; although the 1-hour chart has rebounded from a low of 88856 USD, the volume has not increased in tandem, raising doubts about the sustainability of the rebound; the 4-hour chart is clearer, having previously surged to 94185 USD before retreating, currently fluctuating near the key support level of 89000 USD, which has become a short-term battleground for bulls and bears.

In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended that investors adopt a range trading logic: as long as the 88000 USD support holds and the 94000 USD resistance is not broken, one can lightly buy low and sell high within the 89000-93000 USD range, strictly controlling position size; if the price stabilizes above the 94000 USD integer mark, one can follow up with long positions, targeting 100000 USD; if the 88000 USD support is effectively broken, timely position reduction is necessary to avoid risk, and attention can be paid to the strength of support in the 84000-85000 USD range.

Note: The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is set to be held on December 9-10, and there is uncertainty regarding market expectations for monetary policy. It is highly likely that high volatility will persist before the meeting. Investors are advised to reduce position sizes and wait for a breakout of the key range before increasing trading intensity to avoid blind heavy positions that could lead to expanded risk exposure.

The probability of a rate hike for the yen on December 19 has surged to 76% (according to swap market data). Historically, yen rate hikes have often triggered fluctuations in global financial markets, making it a potential "black swan" catalyst.

The yen's monetary policy has always been closely tied to the dollar, and this rate hike is not without coordination with U.S. policies—after all, the Federal Reserve is simultaneously sending strong signals for rate cuts. This combination of "rising yen and falling dollar" may seem contradictory, but it is, in fact, a trade-off achieved through exchange rates and interest rates between the U.S. and Japan.

Currently, the market is in a sensitive period of policy differentiation, and the volatility of risk assets like ETH is bound to increase. A reminder to all friends: when bottom-fishing, be sure to have stop-losses in place, strictly control your positions, and avoid blindly heavy bets; otherwise, an unexpected downturn could leave you exiting the market in dismay. #ETH

Being trapped ≠ dead end! The unlocking code for reversing positions during bull-bear transitions has been deciphered.

Being trapped is never a dead end, but rather a golden starting point for strategic restructuring! In a bull market, sharp declines often wash out positions, while a bear market frequently sees technical rebounds—this is precisely the "error correction window" that the market offers to professional traders, and an excellent opportunity for ordinary people to turn the tables!

Anxiety alone will only cause you to miss the chance to break the deadlock; it’s better to strike accurately than to be tangled up in the trapped position! The trading system that has been honed through years of practical experience has long seen through the underlying logic of bull-bear transitions: accurately anchoring support levels during fluctuations, locking in optimal exit points during rebounds, and even if deeply trapped, one can find a way to break through!

Leave professional matters to professionals, and now keep up with the rhythm, using precise strategies to tear off the shackles of being trapped, seizing the next round of wealth opportunities in the rise and fall game, turning being trapped into profit, and transforming passivity into initiative! $BNB $BTC $ETH

12.6 ETH
Current ETH price 3037.91, daily drop 4.24%, net capital outflow 525 million, short-term bearish.
After a rise to 3239 in the 4-hour cycle, it fell continuously, touching 2978 before a slight rebound, which belongs to "weak repair after a drop," dominated by bears.
Resistance: 3080 (recent drop retracement platform)
Support: 2978 (daily low)
15-minute cycle (short-term) pattern: after the rebound at 2978, it shows red-green fluctuations, with weak bullish strength, ranging between 3019-3044.
Resistance: 3044 (daily rebound peak)
Support: 3019 (daily fluctuation bottom)

Rebound 3040-3050 light position entry, stop loss 3070, target looking 3019→2980;
Pullback 2980-3000 light position trial, stop loss 2960, target looking 3040→3060.
Specific trading should be based on the actual situation of the market.

12.6 BTC 15-Minute Cycle Technical Analysis: Consolidating Bearish, Short-Term Focus on Support Range

Current Bitcoin price shows a narrow range fluctuation with alternating red and green candlesticks after touching the low of 87976.3, indicating weak strength of the bulls' counterattack, which is categorized as a 'weak recovery after a decline'.

The upper bound of the fluctuation range is around 89750 (intraday rebound high), and the lower bound is anchored at 89468 (intraday fluctuation low). The current price is in the middle of the range, with a stalemate between bulls and bears.

Three, Key Short-Term Signals

From the 15-minute cycle, the price has not yet left the 'weak range after a decline':

1. Resistance level: 89750 (intraday rebound high), if it cannot effectively break through, it will still be under pressure in the short term;
2. Support level: 89468 (intraday fluctuation low) → Strong support at 87976 (intraday low), if it breaks below 89468, there is a high probability of testing around 87976 again.

Four, Operational Reference

Short-term consolidation is bearish; it is recommended to mainly observe or lightly accumulate:

If it pulls back to the 89500-88200 range (close to strong support), a light long position can be tried with a target of 89750-90000;
If the rebound cannot break through 89750, a light short position can be tried, looking down to 89450-89000.

【BNB Short-term Trading Guide】
Current 886.5 is close to the middle Bollinger Band, after a sharp decline there is a weak rebound, and the bears still dominate! KDJ is nearing overbought, the rebound momentum will soon be exhausted, MACD has a golden cross but lacks support below the zero line.
Support: 876.86 (lower band), 870.52 (previous low); Resistance: 886.22 (middle band), 895.58 (upper band).
If it cannot stabilize at the middle band, it will inevitably fall back; a breakout can test the upper band!
Suggestion: 875-860 light position to go long, target 895-905!
For reference only, based on墨羽's actual trading layout.

Play good defense