The US PCE data has been released, and the market is waiting for new changes.

The latest inflation data from the US—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—has just come out, and the core PCE data released alongside it also met expectations. Additionally, there is the Consumer Confidence Index, which, while slightly less important, can still provide some reference for market analysis.

In the complex chess game of the financial markets, PCE data is a crucial piece, closely intertwined with the logic of market fluctuations. The level of PCE inflation acts like a “thermometer” for the market, directly reflecting the price pressures in the economy. When PCE inflation is below expectations, it indicates that the pace of price increases is slowing, and the economic environment is relatively mild. At this point, the market will expect the Federal Reserve to ease the tightening of monetary policy, and may even take accommodative measures in the future, such as lowering interest rates or increasing the money supply. This is akin to injecting a “booster” into the market, enhancing liquidity, boosting investor confidence, and often leading to an uptrend in risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, creating a favorable situation.

Conversely, if PCE inflation is higher than expected, it is like dousing the market with cold water. High inflation intensifies concerns about further tightening of policies by the Federal Reserve, leading to rising capital costs, tightening market liquidity, and causing investors to become cautious, pulling funds from risk assets, putting downward pressure on asset prices, and revealing negative effects.

This time, both the PCE data and core PCE data met expectations, and the market did not receive additional positive stimuli nor suffer from negative shocks, resulting in a relatively stable overall response. However, this does not mean that the market will remain calm indefinitely; we must closely monitor macroeconomic data, policy dynamics, and changes in market sentiment to adjust investment strategies in a timely manner, seizing opportunities amidst the market’s fluctuations.

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