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Wintermute's Latest Market Insights: New Trends Hidden in the Fluctuating Crypto Market

Wintermute's latest market update shows that the crypto market has recently exhibited a more resilient range-bound fluctuation. There has been a significant change in capital flow, concentrating back to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the two major cryptocurrencies, indicating market participants' preference for core assets.

From the perspective of market participant structure, both retail and institutional investors show a bullish attitude, although they are cautious in their allocations, adopting low-leverage strategies. The BTC price is currently back to around $92,000, with a total market capitalization of approximately $3.25 trillion. Despite the market facing unexpected situations last week due to a series of liquidation events, where BTC plummeted by about $4,000 within an hour, triggering approximately $2 billion in liquidations, the market demonstrated strong resilience, quickly absorbing selling pressure and not continuing the downward trend.

In terms of market indicators, the basis between futures and spot prices has compressed, and the implied volatility at year-end is relatively high. This suggests that market capital is currently in a wait-and-see state, awaiting clear signals from the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and macroeconomic developments. Against this backdrop, investors' strategy choices are also more conservative, leaning towards Delta-neutral and Carry strategies, rather than chasing directional opportunities in altcoins.

Overall, while there are some volatility factors present in the current crypto market, the overall range-bound pattern has not changed. As the market awaits further clarity on the macro environment, adjustments in capital flow and investor strategies will have a significant impact on future market trends. Investors need to closely monitor market dynamics and cautiously formulate investment strategies to respond to potential market changes.

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Analysis of ETH Short Contract Strategy

This time, a short contract strategy for ETH is formulated. In the current market environment, while ETH has certain support, upward pressure is gradually becoming apparent. Both technical and fundamental analysis have released short-term pullback signals, hence the choice to go short.

In terms of specific operations, the entry point is set in the range of 3100 - 3110. This area is a key resistance level that ETH has tested multiple times recently but has not been able to effectively break through. Entering short at this position allows for a relatively reasonable cost layout for short positions.

To control risk, the stop-loss point is set at 3168. If the ETH price unexpectedly breaks above this point, it indicates strong short-term upward momentum, breaking the short logic; timely stop-loss can prevent further losses.

The take-profit point is set at 3050-2995. From a technical analysis perspective, this position is an important support area for ETH in the past. When the price pulls back to this level, it is highly likely to encounter strong buying support, leading to a rebound. Setting take-profit here can both lock in some profits and retain flexibility to adjust strategies based on subsequent market trends. Close attention must be paid to market dynamics, and strategies should be adjusted promptly based on actual situations.

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Sister Mei's BTC Market Analysis

1. BTC weekly chart is still in a horizontal rectangular consolidation, with key resistance at the descending trend line (approximately 92,500–93,000) and key support at the lower Bollinger Band at 88,000; the daily chart is running within a triangular consolidation range, breaking above the triangle's upper edge (Bollinger upper band), target zone 96,000–100,000 (including FVG gap + Fibonacci 0.5–0.618). If it breaks below the triangle's lower edge (Bollinger middle band), it will continue to oscillate within the range, waiting for the next directional choice; daily indicators MACD and RSI show a golden cross, indicating a continuation of the upward trend; for the short term, focus on the 4-hour chart, short-term opportunities are to act cautiously;

2. In the short term, on the 4-hour level, the overall direction is in a fluctuating upward channel, but the recent trend has formed a downward channel. If the upper edge of the downward channel around 92000 (also the middle line of the upward channel) breaks, it is expected to form a bullish flag pattern, with the target around 97000 (also the upper resistance zone of the upward channel). If a pullback occurs, watch for support near the lower edge of the upward channel around 86500 that cannot be effectively broken; if it breaks, it may lead to a larger downward flag pattern;

3. SUI Grayscale Submission SUI ETF (positive expectation), weekly chart breaks the descending channel, 3 consecutive bullish candles, with key resistance at 2 dollars (M top neckline + FVG gap). The daily chart shows a successful retest after breaking the W-bottom, leaning towards a fluctuating upward trend; on the 4-hour structure, the 4-hour chart is still in the rebound phase of the downward channel, focusing on the breakthrough of the 1.63 resistance, which may lead to a flag pattern upward;

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The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut ignites hopes for a broad market rally.

On December 8, BlockBeats reported that Chinese crypto analyst Banmuxia injected a dose of 'stimulant' into the financial market. He pointed out that this week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the resumption of balance sheet expansion will bring tense liquidity back to normal. Moreover, the market may even welcome a broad rally this week or even this month, covering fields such as U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and precious metals.

Banmuxia is not speaking without evidence; he quoted content from his article published on November 11. The article mentioned that the Federal Reserve will very likely stop reducing its balance sheet in December and may start the expansion process, at which point liquidity will return to a normal track, a scenario similar to October 2019. The real moment of substantial liquidity injection may have to wait until May next year when Trump takes control of the Federal Reserve, at which point the large-scale liquidity injection of March 2020 may reoccur.

For investors, this news undoubtedly brings new expectations. In an environment of tight liquidity, the prices of various assets are suppressed, and market confidence is severely impacted. Once liquidity returns to normal, funds will flood into the market like fresh water, driving up the prices of various assets.

However, the market is always full of uncertainty. Despite optimistic predictions from analysts, the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies may still be influenced by various factors. While investors look forward to a broad rally, they must also remain rational and cautious, closely monitoring policy dynamics and market changes, and做好风险防控，以免在市场的波动中遭受损失。毕竟，在金融市场中，机遇与风险总是并存。

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The Central Bank of Argentina is considering lifting the ban on cryptocurrency business, marking a significant turning point for the industry.

Recently, the Central Bank of Argentina has been actively considering lifting the ban on banking cryptocurrency operations, planning to allow banks to conduct cryptocurrency trading and custody services under a new regulatory framework. This move signifies a shift in the official stance of Argentina towards cryptocurrencies from 'prohibition' to 'regulation', sending a strong signal of policy change.

For a long time, the use of BTC and stablecoins among the Argentine public has been very widespread, with frequent storage and trading activities. However, these activities largely fall outside the official regulatory system. The central bank's consideration of lifting the ban aims to bring these public activities into compliance. By strengthening KYC (Know Your Customer) and AML (Anti-Money Laundering) measures, and enhancing tax traceability, the goal is to better regulate market order and ensure financial security.

If this policy is ultimately implemented, it will have a profound impact on the Argentine cryptocurrency industry. On one hand, banks will compete directly with local trading platforms by leveraging their advantages. Banks possess stronger financial resources, a broader customer base, and a more comprehensive financial service system, which may lead to lower cryptocurrency trading fees, drive industry reshuffling, and push the market towards a healthier and more orderly direction.

On the other hand, regulatory authorities also face new challenges. To ensure the stable operation of the financial system, regulators need to establish strict capital and liquidity risk standards and conduct comprehensive and detailed supervision of banks engaging in cryptocurrency business. Only in this way can potential risks be effectively mitigated while promoting the development of the cryptocurrency industry, ensuring stability and security in the financial market.

The Central Bank of Argentina's policy considerations undoubtedly provide new ideas and references for global cryptocurrency regulation, and its subsequent developments are worth close attention.

#特朗普取消农产品关税 $ETH

Sister Mei's BTC~ETH Market Analysis

1. The weekly BTC chart shows a bullish candlestick this week, with the overall trend continuing to maintain a sideways fluctuation range. The key resistance above is the descending trend line (around 93000), and the key support is at the lower band of the Bollinger Bands around 88000. On the daily chart, it remains in an upward channel, currently near the midline of the channel, with the channel structure remaining valid. The key resistance above is in the 93500-94000 area (descending trend line + last week's high), while the key support below is around 87,000 at the lower channel boundary. Daily indicators MACD and RSI show a golden cross, indicating continued upward movement. For the short term, focus on the 4-hour chart, with short-term opportunities to watch for;

2. In the short term, on the 4-hour chart, it is in a fluctuating upward channel, currently holding at the midline around 91000. If it continues upward, pay attention to the neckline resistance of the W-bottom around 94000 (also the upper channel boundary). If it breaks through, there is a probability of forming a W-bottom upward structure with a target around 103000 (also the pressure of the consolidation platform). If there is a pullback, watch for support at the lower channel boundary around 87000 that cannot be effectively broken; a break could lead to a descending flag pattern;

3. ETH shows a bullish candlestick this week, with a larger timeframe in a rectangular fluctuation range, waiting for a directional choice. The resistance above is: 3200 (upper edge of the rectangle + trend line pressure), and the lower support is at the low point of the rectangle. On the daily chart, after breaking the neckline of the W-bottom, it quickly recovered, and the daily chart has three consecutive bullish closes, but the trading volume is average. The current price is near the midline of the upward channel, with the potential to break through the strong resistance above the descending trend line: 3200–3250 (trend line + upper boundary pressure), and the support below is: 2890 (lower channel boundary). On the 4-hour structure, it is still operating within a rebound channel; MACD and RSI show corrective momentum;

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The US PCE data has been released, and the market is waiting for new changes.

The latest inflation data from the US—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—has just come out, and the core PCE data released alongside it also met expectations. Additionally, there is the Consumer Confidence Index, which, while slightly less important, can still provide some reference for market analysis.

In the complex chess game of the financial markets, PCE data is a crucial piece, closely intertwined with the logic of market fluctuations. The level of PCE inflation acts like a “thermometer” for the market, directly reflecting the price pressures in the economy. When PCE inflation is below expectations, it indicates that the pace of price increases is slowing, and the economic environment is relatively mild. At this point, the market will expect the Federal Reserve to ease the tightening of monetary policy, and may even take accommodative measures in the future, such as lowering interest rates or increasing the money supply. This is akin to injecting a “booster” into the market, enhancing liquidity, boosting investor confidence, and often leading to an uptrend in risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, creating a favorable situation.

Conversely, if PCE inflation is higher than expected, it is like dousing the market with cold water. High inflation intensifies concerns about further tightening of policies by the Federal Reserve, leading to rising capital costs, tightening market liquidity, and causing investors to become cautious, pulling funds from risk assets, putting downward pressure on asset prices, and revealing negative effects.

This time, both the PCE data and core PCE data met expectations, and the market did not receive additional positive stimuli nor suffer from negative shocks, resulting in a relatively stable overall response. However, this does not mean that the market will remain calm indefinitely; we must closely monitor macroeconomic data, policy dynamics, and changes in market sentiment to adjust investment strategies in a timely manner, seizing opportunities amidst the market’s fluctuations.

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Insights on Bitcoin Market Trends and Trading Strategies

From the current trend of the Bitcoin market, although it is in an upward channel phase, a comprehensive analysis of the larger cycle indicates that this is likely just a stage of adjustment within a larger downtrend, making it difficult to reverse the overall downward momentum. Once the channel breaks, a new downward trend may begin, and the target may very well dip below 75000, requiring investors to remain highly vigilant.

In the next two weeks, the market will face significant event impacts. Next week, there will be a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, followed by a Bank of Japan interest rate hike the week after. These two major policy changes are expected to trigger severe market fluctuations, leading to a peak in forced liquidations. However, with risk comes opportunity, which will also create the last good opportunity to buy the dip this year.

In terms of trading strategy, buying the dip needs cautious planning. Given the high uncertainty in the market, it is recommended to prioritize spot trading, entering the market in batches within a locked range. Spot trading has relatively controllable risks and can avoid forced liquidation risks due to extreme market fluctuations. The batch entry strategy can effectively average costs and reduce the risk of being stuck at high positions caused by one-time buying.
When the market experiences a sharp drop, where prices quickly dip, contracts can be gradually used for supplementary buying. However, it should be noted that contract trading has high leverage and significant risks, so position sizes must be strictly controlled, with reasonable stop-loss and take-profit points set.

In summary, while there are buying opportunities in the current Bitcoin market, the risks cannot be ignored. Investors need to closely monitor market dynamics, combine their own risk tolerance, and formulate a scientific and reasonable investment strategy to seize opportunities while effectively managing risks, achieving steady asset appreciation.

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Bitcoin BTC Short Selling Strategy Analysis

The current Bitcoin market is in a critical oscillation range, with technical indicators and market sentiment both signaling short-selling opportunities. The daily chart shows that the BTC price continues to face resistance in the strong resistance area between 90000 and 91500, which is a range of previous rebound highs and a dense moving average compression zone, forming double technical resistance. The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover under the zero line, indicating that bearish momentum is dominating the market; the middle band of the Bollinger Bands continues to press down, further strengthening the downward trend.

In terms of operations, it is recommended to gradually establish short positions near the 90000 to 90300 area, as this region is a dense zone of recent rebound testing high points, with a large amount of trapped capital. Set the stop-loss above 91500, as this point has been the top of multiple rebounds since November; a breakthrough may trigger a trend reversal.

The take-profit target is set at 87500, as this position resonates with the lower boundary of the previous oscillation range and the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level; if it effectively breaks down, it will open further downward space. Close attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and ETF capital flows; if unexpected easing signals or significant inflows into ETFs occur, strategies should be adjusted promptly.

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Italy's financial regulator Consob has issued an important reminder regarding the transitional period of MiCAR

Recently, Italy's financial regulator Consob officially announced a reminder to investors and virtual asset service providers (VASP) regarding the transitional arrangements for the Regulation on Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCAR). This initiative will have a profound impact on Italy's crypto asset market.

According to the announcement, the MiCAR transitional period will conclude on December 30, 2025. Before this date, if a VASP has not submitted an authorization application for crypto asset service providers (CASP), it must cease all related business activities within Italy and promptly return customer funds and crypto assets to protect the rights of investors.

For VASPs that have submitted authorization applications before the deadline, they may continue to operate in Italy until their application is either approved or explicitly rejected. However, this “grace period” also has a clear time limit and must not exceed June 30, 2026.

This regulation aims to standardize the order of Italy's crypto asset market and strengthen the protection of investors. By setting clear transitional periods and application requirements, it encourages VASPs to enhance their compliance and operational standards. For investors, it is essential to closely monitor whether the VASP they have invested in has submitted the authorization application as required to avoid potential risks. Meanwhile, VASPs need to actively prepare application materials to ensure that their business complies with regulatory requirements, enabling them to continue developing along compliant paths. In the future, with the full implementation of MiCAR, Italy's crypto asset market is expected to welcome a healthier and more orderly development environment.

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BTC Technology:

1. Weekly Level: The price this week is similar to the judgment made on Monday, moving within a wide fluctuation range. From a perspective of looking for a sword in the boat, the current top market is very similar to the top market from 2021 when it shifted from bull to bear, where the top appeared and then dropped, followed by a fluctuation range. In 2021, it went through a weekly flag pattern before a sharp decline; this fluctuation range has now updated with three K-lines, and it remains to be confirmed whether the specific fluctuation pattern is rectangular or flag-like.

2. Daily Level: During the rebound process, the price formed a bearish candle for the first time, creating a bearish engulfing pattern with the previous day, and structurally it is a bearish flag consolidation. The larger cycle is also a wide fluctuation, so attention should still be paid to the risk of a pullback.

3. Regarding Bollinger Bands, there is resistance at the upper band, and currently, there are no signs of an upward breakout.

4. 4-Hour Level: In terms of Vegas, the price failed to successfully break through the Vegas channel yesterday, and under the pressure of Vegas + TD9, a pullback occurred. If the market wants to continue rising, it must break through Vegas.

5. Regarding MACD, it has started to shift from bullish to bearish, forming a death cross above the water, and the volume has shifted from bullish to bearish.

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ETH Technology:

1. Weekly Level: The price is currently in a rebound phase after breaking below the trendline, in a downtrend rebound stage. Therefore, the current price is in a rebound - retest - confirming resistance. From the strength of the rebound, it has reached 3200+, but there are still multiple resistances above: 3340, 3480, 3600. These previous high-level resistance areas may become the endpoint of this round of rebound. As long as it does not break 3600, the overall trend is still bearish.

2. Daily Level: The price has broken through a W bottom, showing strong short-term momentum with three consecutive bullish candles, indicating strong bullish control. However, it is currently in the mid to late stages of this rebound trend. There is a high probability of significant volume play or a first wave of high pullback happening at this position, so caution is advised when chasing long positions.

3. From the Vegas perspective, the daily resistance area resonates with Vegas.

4. 4-Hour Level: The price characteristics on the 4-hour chart show a stepped rise in lows, a strong phase of price increase (without significant pullbacks), and continuous bullish candles breaking through various short-term pressure levels. At the same time, the previous Vegas resistance has also been broken. The appearance of TD9 at high levels without a pullback indicates that short-term capital is actively pushing prices higher.

5. The price has continuously shown TD9+TD13 bearish signals at high levels, accompanied by KDJ and RSI being in the overbought zone. There is a high probability of a downward correction today. Do not blindly chase long positions; if you want to chase long positions, you can only do so after a correction. The price is stuck in the middle, not going up or down, so focus on pending orders.

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Sister Mei's Evening SOL Market Analysis

News: As a high-performance blockchain public chain token, SOL has recently been influenced by the overall market sentiment and the development of its project ecosystem. The activity levels of applications within the ecosystem, such as DeFi and NFTs, have experienced fluctuations, while regulatory dynamics continuously affect market nerves. These factors collectively influence SOL's price trends.

Technical Analysis: From the weekly chart, SOL's price rebounded after finding support near 123.05, reaching a high of 146.87, and currently fluctuating around 143. The MACD indicator shows the DIF line and DEA line near the zero axis, with weak momentum bars indicating a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces.

Operational Strategy: In the short term, if SOL's price can stabilize above 144, consider lightly entering a long position in the 144 - 146 range, targeting 150, with a stop loss set below 142. If the price breaks below 140, it may further decline; consider lightly entering a short position in the 138 - 140 range, targeting 135, with a stop loss at 141.

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Analysis of Market Divergence and Impacts After Stablecoin Legislation in the United States

Recently, the United States passed its first stablecoin legislation—the GENIUS Act. However, there is significant divergence on Wall Street regarding whether stablecoins can truly boost the demand for the US dollar and bring new buyers to short-term US Treasury bonds. Strategists from well-known institutions such as JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs all believe that it is still too early to view this as a 'structural change' in the market.

In terms of funding sources, stablecoin funds primarily come from money market funds, bank deposits, cash, and offshore dollars. However, the GENIUS Act stipulates that stablecoins cannot pay interest, which undermines the incentive for yield-sensitive funds to move out of savings accounts and money market funds. Therefore, even if the scale of stablecoins expands, the net demand for Treasury bills may be more of an adjustment in holder structure rather than substantial new demand.

On the other hand, if the dollars related to stablecoins are considered liabilities of the Federal Reserve, the Fed may correspondingly reduce its Treasury asset holdings. This move will somewhat offset the incremental demand brought by stablecoins.

Moreover, the current federal debt of the United States has exceeded $30 trillion, and it is expected to increase by another $22 trillion over the next decade. Under such heavy debt and deficit pressures, stablecoins are unlikely to fundamentally alleviate the fiscal predicament of the United States.
Overall, although stablecoin legislation has brought some imaginative space to the market, under the current circumstances, its actual impact on the demand for the US dollar and the US Treasury market may be limited, and all market participants should remain cautious in observing subsequent developments.

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Sister Mei's ETH Market Analysis

Current ETH price is around 3180, with an intraday increase of +2.9%. Ethereum strongly broke through 3100 yesterday and quickly rose to 3239, followed by profit-taking, currently fluctuating around 3180. The overall trend remains strong, but there is short-term pressure for high-level adjustments, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the upward momentum.

BOLL: Upper band at 3237, middle band at 3120, lower band at 3003; the K-line is running between the middle and upper bands, and the Bollinger Bands are notably widening, indicating that the bullish trend continues, but the upper band area of 3230–3250 forms short-term resistance. If the price effectively breaks through this range, it will open up further upward space; if it continues to be blocked, it may retest the middle band at 3120 for support.
MACD: DIF: 50.70 DEA: 51.81 Red bars slightly shortened. MACD remains above the zero line, and the bullish structure has not been damaged, but the red bars are weakening, indicating that momentum is beginning to slow. If DIF subsequently crosses below DEA, it will enter a short-term corrective rhythm.

Long Position
Entry Point: 3140 – 3155
Target Price: 3215–3250
Stop Loss Position: 3020, a break below can consider exiting directly.

Short Position
Entry Point: 3235 – 3255, resistance encountered upon retracement
Target Price: 3180-3155
Stop Loss Position: 3275, a break above can consider exiting directly.

Overall, ETH maintains a strong bullish structure, but short-term upward momentum is weakening, with risks of high-level fluctuations and corrections. As long as 3120 is not effectively broken, the mid-term bulls still dominate.
Strong market enters a cooling period, with fluctuations and corrections as the main focus, and low buys remain the main line, while high shorts should only be defensive.

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This week's key focus points in the market: the Fed's "quiet period," key data releases, and the Russia-Ukraine peace talks

This week, the market is focused on three major events: the Fed's "quiet period," the release of important economic data, and key developments in the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.

In terms of data, several key figures will be released this week. On December 3 at 21:15, the U.S. November ADP data will be published, with market expectations of an increase of 130,000. At 22:45/23:00, the final reading of the services PMI and ISM data will be released, with expectations of 56 and 55, respectively. On December 5 at 23:00, the September core PCE month-on-month data will be released, with an expected growth of 0.2%, and an upper threshold of 0.3%. These data are crucial for the decision-making at the December FOMC meeting, as the performance of employment and inflation data will directly influence the Fed's monetary policy direction.

From a geopolitical perspective, the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is entering a critical stage. U.S. envoy Viktorov will bring the signed "28 Peace Points" from Ukraine and Europe to Moscow on Wednesday, and if the Russian side agrees to a 30-day ceasefire, the agreement is expected to be realized. A successful negotiation would have a positive impact on the market, with Brent crude oil prices potentially dropping by $3 - $5, inflation expectations decreasing by 0.1 percentage points, and risk assets rising an additional 1%. Conversely, if the talks collapse, geopolitical premiums will reignite, oil prices will rise by $2, partially offsetting the positive data.

Additionally, this Friday, due to the mourning day for the former president, the market will close early, leading to thinner liquidity. In this situation, market reactions to data releases may be more intense, and investors should be cautious when following up on trades. To mitigate risks, using options protection or reducing positions is a more prudent strategy. Investors should closely monitor these dynamics to adjust their portfolios in a timely manner to respond to market changes.

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Sister Mei's ETH Market Analysis

Current ETH price is around 3060, with a daily increase of +0.54%. After rebounding from a low of 2718, Ethereum has been continuously closing positively, breaking through the 3000 mark and stabilizing above the middle track. It has now tested the previous high area of 3060–3070. Overall, the trend is characterized as a 'deep V reversal + bullish continuation', with sufficient trading volume and a steady rebound rhythm.

BOLL: The upper track is at 3130, the middle track is at 2924, and the lower track is at 2734; K-line is steadily operating above the middle track and is approaching the upper track, indicating that the Bollinger Bands are widening, which suggests increased volatility and an extending trend. Short-term bulls are strong, but there may be a need for consolidation as it approaches the upper track area.

MACD: DIF: 52.78, DEA: 47.68, the red bars are continuously increasing. The MACD is strongly crossing upwards, with red bars continuously growing and sufficient momentum. The short-term momentum release period has not ended, but the rate of increase in the bars is beginning to slow down, suggesting that the upward rhythm may gradually transition to consolidation.

Long Position
Entry Point: 3020–3030
Target Price: 3080–3120
Stop Loss: If it falls below 3000, consider exiting directly.

Short Position
Entry Point: 3080–3090, resistance encountered on retracement.
Target Price: 3020-2980
Stop Loss: If it breaks through 3110 with volume, consider stopping loss and exiting.

The mid-term structure of ETH remains bullish, with sufficient short-term momentum but signs of overheating.
In terms of operations, maintain the idea of 'mainly low long positions, high short defenses', and pay attention to controlling positions and stop losses.

Ethereum is strongly rebounding, and the bullish trend continues, but as it approaches the pressure zone, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of high selling and low buying, responding with a short-term fast pace.

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Ah, the cryptocurrency market is really difficult now... It's time to make plans and discuss the subsequent trends.

Right now, misfortunes do not come alone; Japan's interest rate hike has just started to have negative effects, and this microstrategy has come up with something unexpected. The latest announcement about their Fund has become the last straw that broke the camel's back, stating they need to raise $1.44 billion to pay interest, which indicates they are in a tight spot. There probably won't be much money left to buy coins, and their stock price plummeted 10% early this morning, while Bitcoin has also dropped to its previous low.

So despite the favorable news of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the current trend is really very weak. This is a bear market, and making money is several times harder than in a bull market. In a bear market, if you can manage not to lose money, you have already outperformed 90% of retail investors. So there's no need to be anxious; at least we managed to escape at the peak by the end of October, and then we made some money shorting afterwards, which is already very good. Don't think about the last year's bull market where money was lying on the ground; adjust your mindset and adapt well to the sense of disparity between bulls and bears.

I currently see two relatively stable trading opportunities, as shown in the picture. The support around the previous low of ETH at 2620-2650 is pretty good. In previous instances when the coin price dropped to retest the bottom, there was a 5-10% rebound. So making a rebound trade around this area still has a good chance, and while it may not happen immediately, I will definitely try once it does, especially before the interest rate cut.

Another relatively good trading opportunity is to start positioning low-leverage long-term short positions 2 days before the interest rate cut. Right now, I am not very keen on shorting because I am worried the market might experience a dead cat bounce before the rate cut, and I don't want to engage in risky trades. However, once it gets close to the interest rate cut, I will have no reservations and will start positioning long-term short positions, including BTC, ETH, and some smaller coins that are still at high levels, as they have more room to drop.

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BTC Trading Strategy Analysis: High Short Layout, Seizing the Opportunity for Pullbacks

The current BTC market presents a complex situation, with overall trends showing a decrease in bullish momentum and a gradual accumulation of bearish strength, creating a favorable environment for high short operations.
From the entry range perspective, 87100 - 88100 is a relatively ideal entry point. This range is at the upper area of recent price movements, where the market faces certain pressure and there is a demand for pullbacks.

The stop-loss is set at 88500, which is a key resistance level for further upward price movement. If the price breaks through this level, it indicates that the bearish pressure has failed, and the market may reverse, so timely stop-loss can prevent further losses.

Take profit is divided into three levels: 86000 - 85000 - 84000. As the price gradually declines, taking partial profits in batches can both lock in some profits and retain the possibility of achieving greater gains.
It should be noted that the market changes rapidly; entry does not need to be strictly timed. Flexibly enter within the building range, and adjust position sizes and operational pace reasonably based on real-time market changes and personal risk tolerance, while strictly adhering to stop-loss and take-profit strategies to achieve stable profits.

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