This week's key focus points in the market: the Fed's "quiet period," key data releases, and the Russia-Ukraine peace talks

This week, the market is focused on three major events: the Fed's "quiet period," the release of important economic data, and key developments in the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.

In terms of data, several key figures will be released this week. On December 3 at 21:15, the U.S. November ADP data will be published, with market expectations of an increase of 130,000. At 22:45/23:00, the final reading of the services PMI and ISM data will be released, with expectations of 56 and 55, respectively. On December 5 at 23:00, the September core PCE month-on-month data will be released, with an expected growth of 0.2%, and an upper threshold of 0.3%. These data are crucial for the decision-making at the December FOMC meeting, as the performance of employment and inflation data will directly influence the Fed's monetary policy direction.

From a geopolitical perspective, the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is entering a critical stage. U.S. envoy Viktorov will bring the signed "28 Peace Points" from Ukraine and Europe to Moscow on Wednesday, and if the Russian side agrees to a 30-day ceasefire, the agreement is expected to be realized. A successful negotiation would have a positive impact on the market, with Brent crude oil prices potentially dropping by $3 - $5, inflation expectations decreasing by 0.1 percentage points, and risk assets rising an additional 1%. Conversely, if the talks collapse, geopolitical premiums will reignite, oil prices will rise by $2, partially offsetting the positive data.

Additionally, this Friday, due to the mourning day for the former president, the market will close early, leading to thinner liquidity. In this situation, market reactions to data releases may be more intense, and investors should be cautious when following up on trades. To mitigate risks, using options protection or reducing positions is a more prudent strategy. Investors should closely monitor these dynamics to adjust their portfolios in a timely manner to respond to market changes.

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