📡 According to Lookonchain monitoring, two mysterious whales are staging a century-long bet:
🔸「0x50b3」invested $27.5 million, going long on BTC with 20x leverage at an opening price of $89,642.7, liquidation price $83,385
🔸「0x9311」simultaneously bets $20 million, going short on BTC with 40x leverage at an opening price of $89,502.7, liquidation price $95,114
🔥Key data comparison:
▫️Long-short position ratio: 1.375:1
▫️Leverage difference: 2 times
▫️Price-sensitive period: $83,385-$95,114
▫️Liquidation risk value:
1. Bulls need to beware of breaking $83,000
2. Shorts may face a counterattack at $95,000
🔍 In-depth analysis:
1. Whale strategy intentions
• Bulls may be optimistic about December rate cut expectations + continuous inflow of spot ETFs
• Shorts may bet on the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance + leveraged bubble burst
• Both sides chose to position at the round number of 90,000, resulting in intense competition
2. Market impact simulation
✅ If BTC stabilizes at 95,000, shorts will trigger 40x leverage liquidation, potentially leading to a $200+ million short covering
⚠️ If it falls below 83,000, the liquidation of long positions with 20x leverage will exacerbate selling pressure, potentially testing the support at 75,000
3. Historical data warnings
• The whale sell-off in November 2024 caused Bitcoin to breach the $100,000 support level
• In Q3 2025, long-term Bitcoin holders sold a cumulative 815,000 coins, setting a new historical high
• Currently, the top 100 whales hold over 40% of the circulating supply, increasing market manipulation risk
💡 Retail investor response guide:
▫️ Short-term focus on the breakout direction of key price levels at 95,000/83,000
▫️ For leverage above 10x, it is recommended to set double stop-losses
▫️ Spot investors can gradually position in the 75,000-80,000 range
▫️ Beware of false breakout signals created by whales
⚠️ Risk warning:
• The daily trading volume in the cryptocurrency derivatives market exceeds $300 billion, with extremely high liquidity risk
• Historical data shows that contracts with over 30x leverage have a final liquidation rate of 87%
• The US SEC may soon launch a special investigation into whale trading behavior
$BTC (Data source: Lookonchain/Glassnode/CoinGecko, investment advice is for reference only, the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, decisions should be made cautiously)$ETH
