Polymarket bets on a 95% chance of the FED lowering interest rates on 10/12
According to a share from Stacy Muur – a KOL with 73,000 followers on X – this decision could become a "macro switch" opening up a completely new phase for the crypto market in 2026.
After the strong adjustment on 10/10, Bitcoin has gone through an emotional journey:
• dropped nearly 25% to around 80,000 USD
• then unexpectedly bounced back to 93,000 USD
• while the entire market capitalization decreased by 4%
From the expectation that "this year must be a year of strong growth", the market has shifted to a state of confusion: no one knows what is happening.
But it is often in the most chaotic moments that great opportunities arise.
🌅 Why could Bitcoin benefit significantly if the FED cuts by 25bps?
1️⃣ Cheaper money – cheaper leverage – capital ready to take risks
When interest rates drop, holding BTC/ETH becomes more attractive compared to leaving money idle in T-bills.
The cost of borrowing in crypto decreases significantly, paving the way for capital to return to high-growth potential assets.
➡️ This has always been the fuel for Bitcoin's major bull cycles.
2️⃣ Stablecoins inject additional liquidity into the market
Each time there is an easing policy, stablecoins increase supply, volume on exchanges rises, and capital flows more strongly.
➡️ Money leaves safety and returns to assets with stories – and Bitcoin is always the first place where capital seeks to go.
3️⃣ Yields in crypto become superior
As bond yields decrease, yield sources like staking, LP, or real yield become much more attractive.
➡️ For institutions, Bitcoin and ETH suddenly become a "reasonable" choice rather than just a "risk".