$EVAA The extreme winning rate of major reversals is basically around 40%. The probability of the wedge chart breaking through the upper wedge line is 75%-70%. Is the mathematical expectation of our trade reasonable? The expected profit-loss ratio is close to 3, and the actual winning rate should be between 30%-40%. The expectation is still positive. After reviewing the expectation, we see that there are currently two consecutive daily candlesticks closing with a large bearish candle at the lowest point. From a trend perspective, the price has not broken through the key high, and the bears in the market have not all taken profit, maintaining a bearish trend. The stop-loss probability for this trade has increased.

This type of game of major reversals in wedges will strictly control the profit-loss ratio above 2 in the future, treating it as a double bottom or double top, with an approximately twofold profit-loss ratio mathematical expectation of 0.x.

Additionally, it is important to optimize one's position management, with a fixed 3% stop-loss for each trade rather than a fixed position size. To achieve stable profits in the market comes with extremely strict requirements, which is harder than you might imagine. Without extreme professionalism, it is impossible to achieve stable profits. Half of the quantitative trading institutions in the market are losing money, making stable profit traders extremely scarce. There are basically no traders on Binance Square with a stable curve for a year of manual trading. If there were, the big players would have already opened real accounts. Even if they opened real accounts, none have achieved stability for a year. I haven't achieved stable profits either. I no longer blindly trust anyone; I only believe in mathematical expectation, practicing until I can achieve stable profits. The market can allow the ignorant to make a lot of money, but this is not a reward; it is the beginning of a nightmare. Only through extensive learning and practice can one outperform half of the losing institutions. In my current understanding, being able to read each candlestick has become a prerequisite for stable profits. I have not yet achieved the ability to read each candlestick but aim to reach this level by the end of next year.

If you have recently lost money on my trades, I sincerely apologize; I am also losing money! Regarding winning rates, I have always been skeptical of high probability and high profit-loss. The market rarely becomes unbalanced. I can only strive to ensure that each of my trades is advantageous in terms of mathematical expectation. Starting next year, I will compile an encyclopedia of wedge trading, statistically documenting the winning rates, profit-loss ratios, mathematical expectations, and personal understandings of each losing and profitable trade to share in the community.